Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton holds a lead over Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, in a closely watched Republican runoff, according to new polling from Quantus Insights that suggests a largely settled electorate with limited room for late movement.
The survey shows Paxton ahead 48.8% to 41.3%, with 9.9% of voters undecided. However, the data indicates most voters have already made firm decisions: 88.1% say they are certain to vote, and 78.7% report their choice is definite, narrowing the pool of persuadable voters.
Other survey findings include the following:
– Paxton's advantage extends beyond ballot preference. Respondents rate him as more effective than Cornyn by a margin of 51.3% to 38.9%, and he holds stronger overall favorability.
Paxton records a 55.9% favorable rating and 37.5% unfavorable, compared to Cornyn's 42.6% favorable and 51.7% unfavorable.
– Among supporters of Rep. Wesley Hunt, R-Texas, a majority — 51% — now back Paxton, a potentially decisive factor in a low-turnout runoff environment.
– Cornyn retains pockets of strength, particularly among older voters. He leads Paxton among voters ages 65 and older by 46.4% to 43.6%, respectively, and performed well with that group in the March primary. He also remains competitive in urban areas.
– However, Paxton's support is broader across other key demographics. He leads voters ages 45 to 64 with 54.9% to Cornyn's 36.1%, suburban voters by 51.1% to 39.1%, and those in smaller towns by 54.4% to 33.2%, respectively, suggesting a wider coalition driving his advantage.
– The polling also indicates that endorsements may have limited impact on the race. A majority of respondents — 63% in Paxton's case and 70% for Cornyn — said a potential endorsement from President Donald Trump would not affect their vote.
Just 25.3% said they would be more likely to support Paxton with such backing, while 18.3% said the same for Cornyn.
The poll was conducted among 1,217 likely voters and was carried out March 22-23.
Brian Freeman ✉
Brian Freeman, a Newsmax writer based in Israel, has more than three decades writing and editing about culture and politics for newspapers, online and television.