The large number of candidates seeking the Republican presidential nomination and a key party rule on awarding delegates could lead to a nominee being selected after several ballots at the national convention in Cleveland next year, political analyst Karl Rove said.
"For the first time since 1948, when the GOP nominated Thomas E. Dewey for president after three rounds of voting, Republicans might take more than one ballot to settle on their nominee," Rove said Wednesday in an op-ed piece in
The Wall Street Journal.
By the time the Republican National Convention opens at the Quicken Loans Arena on July 18, the schedule of state caucuses and primaries could whittle the current field of 15 candidates to as few as five, Rove said.
They are current front-runners developer Donald Trump and retired pediatric neurosurgeon Ben Carson — as well as Sens. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.
These contenders "today appear to have the message, money, organization and poll numbers to play the long game," Rove said.
Then, a Republican Party rule complicates matters, he said.
It requires 28 jurisdictions — states, territories and the District of Columbia — that vote before March 15 to award their delegates proportionally. Many of those areas hold "winner-take-all" primaries, in which as many as 40 percent of the convention delegates could be chosen, Rove said.
Among other party regulations that could play a role next year is one allowing "superdelegates" to the convention who can vote for any candidate.
Those could be "the most fluid force in the convention if no candidate has locked in victory," Rove said.
"It is unlikely that the GOP will reprise 1880, when it took 36 ballots to nominate James A. Garfield, who wasn't even a candidate when the convention began," he concluded. "But it is possible that the nomination will still be up for grabs when the GOP convention opens … and that delegates could need more than one ballot to select the party's candidate."
"That's not necessarily a bad thing," Rove added. "After all, Republicans took three ballots in 1860 to pick a fellow named Lincoln."
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