A new forecast by The Hill/Decision Desk HQ gives Vice President Kamala Harris a 55% chance of winning the White House in November.
That's a flip from former President Donald Trump's 56% chance of winning when President Joe Biden was on the ticket. The model now gives Trump a 45% chance.
The forecast has been updated to reflect independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s suspending his campaign.
Although Harris has seen some momentum, analysts say the race remains competitive. Scott Tranter, director of data science for DDHQ, said, "Neither campaign can go to sleep easy tonight thinking they're ahead or they've got the advantage."
According to the forecast, Harris leads the national polling average by nearly 4 points after trailing by 2 when she first joined the race. Her chances have improved in each of the seven key battleground states, but especially in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
As for the downballot races, The Hill/DDHQ says the GOP has a 67% chance of taking the Senate with a projected majority of 51-49. That's down from a 78% chance when was Biden was in the race.
"We can empirically say the switch from Biden to Harris has helped the Democrats' chances at the presidential level, maybe a little bit at the Senate level," Tranter said.
"The Republicans are still certainly heavily favored," he added.
In the House, Republicans have a 56% chance of keeping their majority with a projected 215 seats. They had a 78% chance when Biden was running.
"So many of these races are toss-ups," Tranter said. "And if four or five of these toss-up races start leaning Democratic or Republican, that can really change the probability a lot. That's how close the House is."
Kate McManus ✉
Kate McManus is a New Jersey-based Newsmax writer who's spent more than two decades as a journalist.
© 2025 Newsmax. All rights reserved.