Poll: House Dems, Republicans Locked in Statistical Dead Heat for Midterms

A new Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll survey has House Republicans and Democrats locked in a statistical dead heat headed into the November midterm elections, at 50% apiece.

The new survey represents a mild shift from the Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll's May numbers, in which the GOP led by two percentage points over the Democrats (51% to 49%).

Republicans are losing ground with swing voters — including moderate Democrats — according to Mark Penn, the co-director of the Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll survey.

"Despite poor ratings for the administration and big concerns about inflation, the Republican Party is still seen as too far to the right for these moderate Democrats and so they have not closed the sale on the midterms," says Penn.

It's not uncommon for the political party of the U.S. president to lose House and Senate seats during his first term in office.

However, unlike previous midterm elections, the minority party (in this case, the Republicans in 2022) only needs a small momentum swing to overtake both chambers — a net-positive of four seats in the House, and just a net of one seat to control the Senate.

Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll released another significant survey on Monday, previewing a possible rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election.

For Trump vs. Biden, the former president enjoyed a 4-point lead (45% to 41%).

And in a hypothetical matchup pitting former President Trump vs. current Vice President Kamala Harris, Trump has a 7-point lead (47% to 40%).

According to Harvard CAPS-Harris, neither the Republican Party (48%) nor Democratic Party (43%) have favorability ratings above 50%.

And regarding specific issues, Harvard/Harris says that inflation remains the greatest concern for 49% of likely GOP voters, but 36% for likely Democrat voters.

The second most-pressing issue, according to Harvard/Harris, is abortion rights — with 20% of Democrats voters prioritizing this matter for the November midterms. 

However, just 8% of GOP voters ranked abortion rights as the most pressing concern.

The Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll survey heard from 1,885 registered voters over a two-day period last week (July 27-28).

• Poll: USA TODAY/Suffolk Gives House Democrats a Generic 4-Point Lead Over GOP
• Report: Voters in 30-Plus States Lopsidedly Switching to GOP, in Stern Warning for Dems