Poll: GOP in Danger of Losing Senate Seats in Arizona, Nevada

Republicans are in danger of losing midterm Senate races in Nevada and Arizona, according to the latest Axios/Survey Monkey poll.

Further, the poll results show a virtual tie in a third hotly contested Senate race in dead-red Tennessee, according to the results.

The question posed in the survey: Who would you vote for in the following states if the midterm election were being held today?

Those results, according to Axios:

Nevada:

• Incumbent Sen. Dean Heller: 44 percent.
• Democratic challenger Jackie Rosen: 50 percent.

Arizona, to fill seat vacated by retiring Sen. Jeff Flake:

• Rep. Martha McSally: 42 percent.
• Democrat Kyrsten Sinema: 51 percent.

Tennessee, to fill seat vacated by retiring Sen. Bob Corker:

• Rep. Marsha Blackburn: 47 percent.
• Former Democratic Gov. Phil Bredesen: 48 percent.
• No answer: 5 percent.

A common thread across the three states that could hamper Republicans' chances to win: 64 percent of voters support protections for Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) recipients, and 71 percent support offering illegal immigrants a pathway to citizenship over deportation, according to the survey's results.

Even if Republicans lost the Senate races in Nevada, Arizona and Tennessee, they still would likely hold the majority — if not grow it — given that Democrats have to defend 3 times more seats, with 10 of them coming in states that President Donald Trump carried by more than 10 points in the 2016 election.

However, the polling combined with the closer-than-expected special election for an open Arizona House seat has the attention of Republican operatives.

"We do have more defensive terrain to hold than when the cycle started," American Crossroads chief Steven Law told Axios. "And targeted Democratic incumbents have been over-performing in terms of their early fundraising activity."

The Survey Monkey/Axios polls were conducted April 2-23 among a total sample of 1,667 registered voters living in Arizona, 1,332 registered voters living in Nevada, and 1,639 registered voters living in Tennessee. The error estimate is 4 percentage points for Arizona, 5 percentage points for Nevada, and 4 percentage points for Tennessee.

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