A few days ago, a journalist covering the 2024 presidential election called me as I was pulling into the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California, to look at some newly opened records on the 1984 campaign.
He said he had just read my recent book, The Year That Broke Politics: Collusion and Chaos in the Presidential Election of 1968 (Yale University Press, 2023), which tells a story about another divisive election that resonates strongly with 2024.
"I have one question," he said. "If Gavin Newsom called you today and asked, 'What should I do?,' what would you say?" As I gazed to the Spanish Mission style building just ahead, I said I would advise the Governor of California to do exactly what the Governor of California did in 1968. The politicians are different, and they're configured differently, but the political dynamics are eerily similar — and offer some useful lessons.
Put yourself in the situation of the California Governor. He wants to run. More than "wants" — he's eager. He has assets. He has Hollywood good looks. He looks like a president already.
He's a great communicator. He has executive experience leading the nation's most important state. But he also has liabilities. He's come on the national political scene quickly. His political views might be too extreme. He's not battle tested. He has avoided primaries. He has no campaign infrastructure. It would be extremely risky to try to engineer a coup at the convention.
Most of all, he's cautious. He'll have another chance if he doesn't run this year. Probing the political waters could help or hurt him in the future. Whatever he does, he does not want to be blamed for dividing his party. If his party has a good year, he wants to be associated with its victory but not tarnished if it underperforms.
Advice to Newsom: Imitate Reagan in 1968.
Reagan was the conservative dream candidate in 1968.
"Ronald Reagan could pull the conservatives away from Nixon," Pat Buchanan recalled.
While Richard Nixon went on to become the Republican nominee and the winner of the 1968 presidential election, he always feared challenges on his right more so than those on his left.
No one benefited more from liberal missteps in domestic and foreign policy during the 1960s than Reagan. He had made himself a national political figure in 1964 with his "A Time for Choosing" speech, in which he endorsed Arizona Sen. Barry Goldwater's run for the presidency. He was effectively Goldwater lite, without the senator's abrasive temperament or severity.
In 1966, after beating Pat Brown, who had defeated Nixon in 1962, to become governor
of California, Reagan quickly emerged as the leader of the right wing of the party.
During his 1966 campaign, he promised not to seek the presidency in 1968 — a pledge he found difficult to keep. As governor, Reagan was no ideologue. He opposed the Civil Rights Act of 1964 but submitted the largest budget increase in state history and did not reverse open housing policies.
He was not thrilled by Nixon's rise but preferred him to Nelson Rockefeller, the liberal
Republican Governor of New York. As 1968 approached, Reagan was cautious. He represented what conservatives wanted: the unfulfilled promise of the Goldwater revolution. Reagan's magnetic personality radiated optimism and hope — the ideal message in a revolutionary decade.
But he was not battle tested, pragmatic party leaders needed a win, and it was not clear that Reagan would be any better than Goldwater for uniting the party.
In an exchange of letters with Nixon in April 1967, Reagan agreed that Nixon, if he ran, would have the first shot at success in the primaries. If by the Wisconsin primary he did not vanquish Michigan Gov. George Romney, considered the early front-runner, Reagan was free to move in.
That final point is where Gavin Newsom finds himself today. Does he have a similar agreement with President Joe Biden? Is there a red line, if crossed, which would compel Newsom to leave the sidelines and officially join the race?
Reagan ultimately never faced that moment in 1968, but he was ready. Nixon rolled up primary victories from New Hampshire through Oregon — not entering the California primary due to the desire not to face Reagan on the ballot in his home state — and had the nomination clinched well before delegates assembled at the Republican National Convention in Miami Beach.
Nixon's ultimate victory in 1968 did not hurt Reagan. Nor did Republican underperformance in House and Senate races. And Watergate ultimately dealt an advantage to Reagan he could never have imagined. The chaos of the 1960s, compounded by the overcorrection of the 1970s, laid the foundation for Reagan's America in the 1980s.
Luke A. Nichter is a Professor of History and James H. Cavanaugh Endowed Chair in Presidential Studies at Chapman University. He is the New York Times bestselling author of eight books including, most recently, "The Year That Broke Politics: Collusion and Chaos in the Presidential Election of 1968" (Yale University Press, 2023), which was chosen as a Best Book of 2023 by the Wall Street Journal. He is now at work on a book tentatively titled LBJ: The White House Years of Lyndon Johnson.
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