Former Rep. Eric Swalwell's recent exit from California's gubernatorial race appears to be reshaping the Democratic field, giving former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra a clearer lane in the crowded contest, according to a new Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics poll.
Early numbers suggest Becerra is benefiting as Democrats begin to consolidate support.
Swalwell ended his bid earlier this month amid sexual misconduct allegations that quickly engulfed his campaign and sparked intense political backlash. While he has denied the claims, the controversy led to a rapid collapse in support and effectively forced him out of the race.
The poll shows Republican Steve Hilton leading the overall field at 17%, with Republican Chad Bianco and Democrat Tom Steyer tied at 14%. Becerra and Democrat Katie Porter each draw 10%, while San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan lags at 5%, and a sizable 23% of voters remain undecided.
Among Democrats, the impact of Swalwell's departure is more pronounced. Becerra now captures 19% support of the party, just behind Steyer at 20% and ahead of Porter at 15%.
"Becerra gained 15 points among Democrats without Swalwell on the ballot," said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
The shift suggests Becerra is emerging as a leading option for voters who had favored Swalwell.
California's "jungle primary" system raises the stakes, with all candidates appearing on the same ballot and only the top two advancing to November. That structure puts a premium on consolidating support early, particularly in a fragmented race.
On the Republican side, Hilton and Bianco continue to split the vote. Hilton leads among GOP voters with 48%, compared with Bianco's 40%, keeping the contest competitive as both vie for dominance.
Independent voters remain divided, with Steyer at 16%, Hilton at 15%, Bianco at 14%, and Porter at 10%. With independents scattered, candidates who can unify their base may have a key advantage.
Male voters are evenly split between Hilton and Bianco at 19% each, with Steyer close behind at 18%. Among women, the race is more dispersed, with Hilton and Becerra each at 14%, Porter at 13%, and Steyer and Bianco at 11% each.
The economy remains the top issue for voters at 41%, followed by housing affordability at 20%, underscoring the challenges facing candidates in the nation's most populous state.
The poll was conducted April 14-15 and surveyed 1,000 California likely primary voters. It has a credibility interval, similar to a margin of error, of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Nicole Weatherholtz ✉
Nicole Weatherholtz, a Newsmax general assignment reporter covers news, politics, and culture. She is a National Newspaper Association award-winning journalist.
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