Rep. Byron Donalds, R-Fla., has opened an early lead in Florida's 2026 Republican gubernatorial primary, according to an Emerson College Polling survey released Thursday, indicating he may have a sizable advantage in a race that remains fluid.
The poll put support for Donalds at 46% among likely Republican primary voters, while Lt. Gov. Jay Collins and investor James Fishback each drew 4%, and 39% remained undecided.
In a separate hypothetical Republican primary test that included current Gov. Ron DeSantis' wife, Casey DeSantis, Donalds still led with 44%, while Casey DeSantis received 7%.
"Byron Donalds is the clear favorite among Republicans to succeed Governor DeSantis," Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a statement released with the results of the survey. "Donalds leads all age groups and holds majority support among voters over 60, at 54%."
Donalds entered the race after receiving President Donald Trump's endorsement, and he formally launched his campaign with a rally in Bonita Springs as Republicans began jockeying to replace term-limited Gov. DeSantis.
Collins, who joined the race in January, is one of several Republicans seeking the nomination in what is expected to remain the marquee contest in a state where the GOP has dominated statewide elections in recent years.
On the Democrat side, former U.S. Rep. David Jolly led the field at 21%, followed by Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings at 10%, while 53% were undecided, underscoring how unsettled that primary remains as well.
A hypothetical general election matchup between Donalds and Jolly was much tighter, with Donalds at 44% and Jolly at 39%, while a separate matchup between Jolly and Casey DeSantis showed Jolly at 40% and DeSantis at 39%.
"Florida Hispanic voters are split between Donalds and Jolly: 42% support Donalds and 41% Jolly," Kimball noted. "Men break for Donalds by 14 points, 49% to 35%, while women break for Jolly by three points, 43% to 40%."
The survey also measured Florida's 2026 Senate race and found appointed Sen. Ashley Moody, R-Fla., leading potential Democrat challengers, including retired Army Lt. Col. Alex Vindman, after DeSantis selected Moody in January 2025 to fill the seat vacated by current Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Beyond the candidate matchups, the poll suggested a divided electorate heading into the 2026 cycle, with Trump holding a 46% job approval rating in Florida and DeSantis at 50%.
The economic undercurrent was also evident, with 45% of likely voters saying they were worse off financially than a year ago, compared with 27% who said they were better off.
Florida's primary election is scheduled for Aug. 18, 2026, with the general election set for Nov. 3, and the open governor's race is drawing intense attention because Gov. DeSantis cannot seek another consecutive term under state law.
For Democrats, the challenge remains steep in a state that has trended sharply Republican and has not elected a Democrat governor since Lawton Chiles won reelection in 1994.
Emerson College Polling surveyed 1,125 likely voters in Florida from March 29-31, 2026, with a margin of error of ±2.8 percentage points.
Theodore Bunker ✉
Theodore Bunker, a Newsmax writer, has more than a decade covering news, media, and politics.
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