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Tags: 2020 Elections | biden | trump | chances | poll | aggregate

FiveThirtyEight: Biden Has 70.5% Chance of Winning Election

FiveThirtyEight: Biden Has 70.5% Chance of Winning Election
(Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

Friday, 04 September 2020 01:33 PM

Joe Biden stands a 70.5% chance of winning the Electoral College, according to the Sept. 4 run of poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight’s election forecasting model. He is predicted to win 334 of 538 electoral votes.

  • The model estimated Donald Trump’s chances at 28.9%
  • According to the Sept. 4 run of the model, Trump had a 16.6% chance of carrying the popular vote, compared with Biden’s 83.4%
  • The national polling average for Trump reached 42.8% on Sept. 4. It is unchanged from Sept. 3
  • Biden’s national polling average reached 50.4% on Sept. 4 compared with 50.3% on Sept. 3
  • These were the FiveThirtyEight’s forecasts and polling averages by state on Sept. 4:
  • These major polls have been added to FiveThirtyEight’s poll database in the last 24 hours:

NOTE: FiveThirtyEight rates pollsters according to their historical accuracy. For the purposes of this story, the lowest possible rating for a major poll is B-

© Copyright 2021 Bloomberg News. All rights reserved.


Politics
Joe Biden stands a 70.5% chance of winning the Electoral College, according to the Sept. 4 run of poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight's election forecasting model. He is predicted to win 334 of 538 electoral votes.The model estimated Donald Trump's chances at 28.9%According to...
biden, trump, chances, poll, aggregate
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2020-33-04
Friday, 04 September 2020 01:33 PM
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