FiveThirtyEight: Biden Has 70.5% Chance of Winning Election

Joe Biden stands a 70.5% chance of winning the Electoral College, according to the Sept. 4 run of poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight’s election forecasting model. He is predicted to win 334 of 538 electoral votes.

• The model estimated Donald Trump’s chances at 28.9%
• According to the Sept. 4 run of the model, Trump had a 16.6% chance of carrying the popular vote, compared with Biden’s 83.4%
• The national polling average for Trump reached 42.8% on Sept. 4. It is unchanged from Sept. 3
• Biden’s national polling average reached 50.4% on Sept. 4 compared with 50.3% on Sept. 3
• These were the FiveThirtyEight’s forecasts and polling averages by state on Sept. 4:
• These major polls have been added to FiveThirtyEight’s poll database in the last 24 hours:

NOTE: FiveThirtyEight rates pollsters according to their historical accuracy. For the purposes of this story, the lowest possible rating for a major poll is B-