Republican pollster Jim McLaughlin issued a pointed warning Tuesday on Newsmax, cautioning that Democrats continue to notch unusually strong performances in special elections, and that Republicans risk being caught flat-footed if they assume traditional red districts will hold without a fight.
McLaughlin said on "Wake Up America" that as Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District holds a special election on Tuesday, on paper, it should be a Republican blowout. Former President Donald Trump carried the seat by 20 points.
Yet the latest Emerson poll shows GOP nominee Matt Van Epps leading Democrat Aftyn Behn by just 2 points.
For McLaughlin, that margin isn’t just a polling quirk — it’s part of a broader pattern.
"Whenever you have these special elections, the Democrats in all cases always seem to overperform — especially when there's a Republican in the White House," he said. "We've got to be careful with this. We can’t take anything for granted."
McLaughlin stressed that Democrats often outperform expectations in off-cycle contests, using them as staging grounds for enthusiasm, organization, and nationalized messaging.
While Republicans frequently rely on the natural partisan lean of a district, Democrats have leveraged special elections as high-stakes opportunities to energize their base.
In Tennessee, he noted, "special interest money" has poured in from Democrat strongholds such as Washington, San Francisco and New York — transforming what should be a routine hold into a competitive race.
That kind of investment, he argued, is no accident.
"The Democrats play for keeps, and we've got to learn," McLaughlin said. "We've got to play in these elections as hard as the Democrats do."
Despite Republican confidence that Van Epps will ultimately prevail, the narrow polling margin illustrates a persistent GOP challenge: turnout.
Off-year and post-holiday elections routinely favor Democrats, who tend to vote earlier and organize more aggressively through national networks, advocacy groups, and digital operations.
Even in a district that includes conservative strongholds such as Clarksville and Franklin, McLaughlin warned that Republicans cannot assume a natural cushion is enough — particularly as Democrats aim to frame any single-digit race as a symbolic victory.
McLaughlin's message extends far beyond Tennessee.
With Democrats already signaling a strategy focused on maximizing every special, local, and off-year election to build momentum ahead of the 2026 midterms, Republicans risk losing the narrative — and possibly winnable seats — if they fail to respond with equal intensity.
The lesson, McLaughlin argued, is straightforward but urgent: GOP candidates must engage early, invest heavily, define contrasts sharply, and never assume favorable demographics will carry them through.
If they don’t, he warned, Democrats will continue to rack up surprise wins — or near-wins — that reshape the political landscape long before the next big cycle arrives.
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Brian Freeman ✉
Brian Freeman, a Newsmax writer based in Israel, has more than three decades writing and editing about culture and politics for newspapers, online and television.
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