Pollster Patrick Allocco told Newsmax on Monday that Republicans suffered an "epic failure" in a recent Texas State Senate special election after a Democrat won by 14 percentage points in a district long considered safely conservative.
On "Finnerty," Allocco said the loss was driven by GOP complacency and a collapse in voter turnout that erased what had previously been a Republican advantage.
"This is an epic failure for getting out the vote for Republicans," Allocco said. "We've been cautioning for weeks now about GOP complacency."
Allocco pointed to November's election, when the two Republican candidates combined to defeat Democrat Taylor Rehmet by 5 percentage points.
"If you look at the mechanics of this election, just a couple months earlier in November, there was a jungle ballot where all three candidates — two Republicans and one Democrat — ran and the Republicans actually, combined, beat the Democrat by 5 percentage points and by over 5,000 votes," he said.
But by the time voters returned for the runoff on Saturday, Republican turnout had collapsed.
"Fast forward to the runoff on Saturday, and you've got 24,000 less votes going in there," Allocco said. "And there was also, I think, an ice storm that intervened during that period.
"They lost a 5-point lead."
"If they could only have re-combined their vote and put that coalition together back from Nov. 4," he added, Republican Leigh Wambsganss could have avoided the loss.
Wambsganss called the defeat a "wake-up call" for Republicans.
Allocco also argued that ongoing nationwide protests tied to Immigration and Customs Enforcement are further complicating the GOP's midterm outlook, particularly with undecided voters.
"It is hurting Republicans for the midterm," he said. "Why? Because of the Republicans' inability to connect their message through the noise of the protests and be able to connect with that persuadable voter that they need to connect with in order to win the election."
He said the protests energize Democrats and anti-incumbent voters while creating a negative perception among swing voters.
"It doesn't affect Republicans and Democrats. We know they're locked in," Allocco said.
"It affects the perception of the persuadable voter. What they see is chaos on the streets.
"That is kryptonite to them. And that is going to impede their view of the Republican Party."
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