Pollster Zogby to Newsmax: Emerson Numbers Too Close to Bet on Trump

Nobody should place bets on former President Donald Trump's numbers based on a poll this past week showing him slightly ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in five out of seven swing states, as the numbers are "non-leads" showing the race in a virtual tie, pollster John Zogby told Newsmax on Saturday.

"I would stay away from your bookie, and I wouldn't make any bets whatsoever just yet," Zogby, appearing with former Trump White House associate counsel May Mailman on Newsmax's "Wake Up America Weekend," said about the Emerson College poll results.

"[They are] not only well within the margin of sampling error, but I need to study the Emerson model and see what the turnout model is and [if] it will resemble what other pollsters are saying," Zogby said.

There has been "very little movement" in the Harris campaign or the polling numbers between the candidates, Zogby noted.

"Trump has slightly pulled ahead in the battleground states. But look, not one of those leads in the battleground states is 1% or more," he said. "It's all rounded to 1% or less. Secondly, the honeymoon is over for Kamala Harris… we're just not seeing any growth in her numbers or in her support among key groups."

Trump's numbers are also locked in, said Zogby, adding that he thinks the race will go down to the wire.

"Let's be careful of calling something leads when they're really not leads," he said. "They're really just little bumps in the carpet."

Zogby and Mailman also discussed a Politico report that deemed the election a "boys vs. girls" race because of the differences in numbers between men supporting Trump and women backing Harris.

If the race comes down to those factors, Republicans are in trouble because women vote more often than men, said Mailman.

"If Republicans are going to put all of their stock on women or on men and getting men to vote, then there needs to be that turnout apparatus," she said. " It can't just be registering them… there's a step two. There's actually taking them to the polls and if men can vote then that's a successful strategy. But do not forget, women turn out in huge percentages. So if I was a candidate, and I wanted to count on either men or women, I'd rather count on women."

Meanwhile, Democrats like former President Barack Obama are "bullying" Black male voters and calling them "misogynistic" if they don't support Harris, said Mailman.

"This has nothing to do with sex," she said. "This has to do with how do you treat men, what do you have to offer men? And you know, white, Black, or otherwise, the Democrats don't have a good answer to that."

Zogby agreed that the election is a "boys vs. girls race," and said that young men, particularly young Black men don't know "exactly how to steer their lives in what they perceive as a female-dominated society."

"I think it's wise for Kamala Harris to be going after women," he added. "Women put Barack Obama over the top in 2012, when that was a very close election. I think the Trump and [Ohio Sen. J.D] Vance team are counting on the same thing from young men this time."

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