Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris virtually are tied in seven battleground states expected to decide the outcome of the presidential election, according to a new Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey.
Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are considered the key swing states in the election.
The Emerson/Hill survey results released Thursday show Trump ahead of Harris in Arizona (49%-47%), Georgia (49%-48%), North Carolina (49%-48%), and Pennsylvania (49%-48%).
Harris leads in Nevada (48%-47%), and the two presidential candidates are tied at 49% in both Michigan and Wisconsin.
Each state poll has a roughly plus/minus 3 percentage point margin of error.
"Vice President Harris performs stronger than President [Joe] Biden among Asian voters and young voters, but underperforms Biden's 2020 support among independents and older voters," Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball said.
"Trump has held at 49% for several months in Emerson surveys in Wisconsin, raising questions about whether he has hit a ceiling there. With just under four weeks to go, the race remains too close to call in key swing states, all within the margin of error."
Female voters generally support Harris while male voters support Trump, with the lone exception being Arizona, where the former president leads among both men and women.
The Emerson/Hill poll found that Democrats maintain an edge over the Republican candidates in the swing-state U.S. Senate races:
- In Arizona, Democrat Ruben Gallego leads Republican Kari Lake 50% to 43%.
- In Michigan, Democrat Rep. Elissa Slotkin leads Republican Mike Rogers 49% to 44%.
- In Nevada, incumbent Democrat Sen. Jacky Rosen leads Republican Sam Brown 50% to 42%.
- In North Carolina, Democrat Josh Stein leads Republican Mark Robinson 50% to 34%.
- In Pennsylvania, Democrat Sen. Bob Casey leads Republican Dave McCormick 48% to 46%.
- In Wisconsin, Democrat Sen. Tammy Baldwin leads Republican Eric Hovde 50% to 46%.
Voters in Arizona and Nevada say they will support propositions establishing a constitutional amendment that would provide a right to abortion up until fetal viability.
A majority of voters in Arizona (54%) say they plan to vote "yes" on Proposition 139, while 33% plan to vote against it, and 13% are undecided. In Nevada, 55% say they plan to vote to support Proposition 6, while 33% plan to vote "no," and 13% are undecided.
The Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey was conducted Oct. 5-8, 2024 among 1,000 likely voters in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin; 950 likely voters in Michigan; and 900 likely voters in Nevada.
Charlie McCarthy ✉
Charlie McCarthy, a writer/editor at Newsmax, has nearly 40 years of experience covering news, sports, and politics.
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