Republicans in Virginia are turning out at a higher rate in early voting for a redistricting referendum than they did in the 2025 gubernatorial election, according to election tracking data.
The state is one day away from voting on whether to let the Democrat-controlled Legislature redraw Virginia's congressional district map.
The Washington Examiner reported that it's a move that could shift the current 6-5 split to a 10-1 advantage for the Democrats.
Election forecasters are closely watching early voting numbers, which show a shift compared with the 2025 cycle.
The final early vote tally is 3 percentage points more Republican than the early vote turnout in 2025, according to State Navigate.
At the same time, Democrats hold a numerical edge in total ballots cast, with an estimated 802,740 early votes vs. 554,851 from Republican voters.
Decision Desk HQ said polling shows the measure slightly ahead but noted that early vote trends could tighten the outcome.
"Yes has a slight edge in the polls and a much bigger $ edge," the group wrote. "But No has a real shot at winning as the early vote is less pro-Democratic than it was last November."
Data from the Virginia Public Access Project shows the highest early turnout increases are in the state's 6th and 9th Congressional districts.
Those districts are represented by Republican Reps. Ben Cline and Morgan Griffith.
Overall turnout for the special election is high compared with typical off-cycle votes.
As of Sunday, more than 1.3 million voters had cast early ballots in the referendum compared with more than 1.4 million early votes in the 2025 election.
Democrats are also turning out in large numbers, with the referendum drawing interest from voters responding to redistricting efforts in other states, including moves backed by President Donald Trump in places such as Texas.
A Washington Post and George Mason University poll from late March found 52% of likely voters support the redistricting measure, while 47% oppose it.
Gov. Abigail Spanberger, a Democrat, has publicly supported the proposal and urged voters to approve it.
Former Gov. Glenn Youngkin, a Republican, has campaigned against the measure and is urging voters to reject it.
Polls for the referendum are set to close at 7 p.m. Tuesday.
Jim Mishler ✉
Jim Mishler, a seasoned reporter, anchor and news director, has decades of experience covering crime, politics and environmental issues.
© 2026 Newsmax. All rights reserved.