Presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden by two points, according to a new national poll released Thursday by the University of North Florida (UNF).
Trump leads Biden 47% to 45% among likely voters surveyed by UNF; 4% said they would vote for someone else; 3% said they did not know or refused to answer. The survey did not include third party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in a hypothetical multi-candidate matchup.
However, 6% of those who voted for Biden in 2020 said they would vote for Trump in this year's election, with another 4% said they would vote for someone else in November, according to the survey.
Trump beat Biden in Florida by 3 points in 2020, 51% to 48%. Trump leads Biden by 0.3 points nationally in 2024, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average.
"It will likely be a very close race six months from now," UNF faculty director of the Public Research Lab Michael Binder said in his analysis.
Biden and Trump suffer from low favorability ratings in Florida, with Biden at 57% and Trump at 54% unfavorability, according to the survey. RFK Jr., however, had a 35% favorable rating against 34% unfavorable, with 31% saying "don't know."
"Voters across the board don't seem to be huge fans of any of these candidates, even within their own parties," said Binder.
"In fact, a substantial portion — 15% — said they have an unfavorable opinion of both Biden and Trump, and 5% don't like any of the three," he added. "It's worth nothing that only 11% of these double-haters said they were voting for a third candidate, with 43% indicating they would vote for Biden, and 30% going to Trump."
As for the most important issue for Floridians in November, the economy was No. 1 at 27% followed by immigration/border control at 11% and abortion/women's rights (10%).
UNF's Public Opinion Research Lab surveyed 745 likely voters from April 9-20. The margin of sampling error is 4.2 percentage points.
Mark Swanson ✉
Mark Swanson, a Newsmax writer and editor, has nearly three decades of experience covering news, culture and politics.
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