The housing industry is gearing up for growth as builders anticipate a regulatory rollback and economic tailwinds following President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House, but potential trade and immigration hurdles loom, the Washington Post reported.
The U.S. housing industry is optimistic about the potential for reduced regulations and a thriving economy following Donald Trump’s return to the presidency. Builders across the country believe his administration’s policies could boost their industry, though concerns over tariffs and immigration changes temper their enthusiasm.
“The energy right now is just unbelievable,” said Greg Hardwick, president of Hardwick General Contracting in Florida. “Anyone taking a risk in the housing market right now feels really good.”
Builder sentiment has been climbing, with the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reporting improved confidence for three consecutive months as uncertainty from the election fades. Fannie Mae projections forecast a 7.2% increase in new-home sales by 2025 and an additional 4% in 2026.
Builders hope Trump will ease regulations they view as barriers to efficiency. Two specific rules have drawn attention: stricter energy efficiency standards imposed by the previous administration and federal wetlands permits required for building near certain water features. Alicia Huey of AGH Homes in Alabama described how such regulations have complicated her projects and led to abandoned plans.
“She got a new dog, and her dog would have been long gone by the time we got the fence up,” Huey said about a client’s experience with wetlands permits.
Trump’s proposed regulatory changes could streamline these processes, opening more growth opportunities.
However, Trump’s plans to impose new tariffs on imports from China, Canada, and Mexico have raised concerns within the industry. Builders like Joshua Correa of Divino Homes in Dallas worry about the impact on material costs, which are already volatile following the pandemic.
“We hope they find a fine line,” Correa said. “Other countries do sell cheaper materials, which helps us build affordable housing.”
The scale of Trump’s proposed tariffs could disrupt over $2 trillion in trade, affecting the availability and affordability of construction materials.
Immigration policies remain another critical factor. Trump’s focus on deporting undocumented workers could create a significant labor shortage in the construction sector, where about 25% of workers are estimated to be undocumented.
“Mass deportations would have a dramatic impact on cost and schedules,” said Brad Simons of Magleby Construction in Utah. “Even the fear of it could cause disruptions.”
A study by economist Michael Clemens noted that similar policies under the Obama administration resulted in reduced construction jobs, fewer homes built, and increased housing costs.
Despite these challenges, many builders remain optimistic. Carl Harris, a Kansas-based builder, and NAHB chairman, expects more buyers to enter the market as mortgage rates stabilize.
“I’m feeling as good as I’ve felt for a few years,” Harris said.
Jim Thomas ✉
Jim Thomas is a writer based in Indiana. He holds a bachelor's degree in Political Science, a law degree from U.I.C. Law School, and has practiced law for more than 20 years.
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