GOP Strategists: Abortion Debate Threatens Senate Majority

Senate Republican strategists are warning that the party's hopes for winning back the chamber's majority in 2024 may be hindered by the ongoing abortion rights debate, as it was in 2022 when the party took a net loss of one seat.

"It's true that abortion was the chief inhibiting factor for preventing Republicans from gaining an even bigger majority in the House, and of the Senate seats where we came up short last cycle," a Republican strategist, who spoke under the condition of anonymity to discuss party strategy, commented to The Hill. "The only way we can win this cycle is if we don't let an issue like that pull voters away from our party."

Republicans could have a chance to retake the Senate next year, as Democrats are defending 23 seats, including those held by vulnerable incumbents in West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, Ohio, and Montana, while the GOP has just 10 seats to defend and no incumbents who are seen as vulnerable.

Democrats, though, are expected to focus again on the issue of abortion rights, which was a factor in GOP losses in Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania last year.

Senate Republicans, meanwhile, remain divided on whether to leave the issue of abortion rights up to state legislatures or to seek a federal law banning abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., has said abortion policy should be left for states to determine, rather than Congress, as it is not likely a federal abortion ban bill could get 60 votes to pass the Senate.

Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., however, disagrees with McConnell and is arguing that presidential candidates should support a federal abortion ban and plans to once again introduce legislation for the 15-week ban.

Graham last unveiled his abortion bill in September 2022, just before the November midterm election, which strategists said was a bad idea for many campaigns.

His plan will still allow states to impose laws that ban abortions at earlier stages of pregnancy. Republican strategists, though, are trying to push back on discussions of abortion policy in the Senate, saying that will give Democrats more ammunition as the election approaches.

"I firmly believe that there is no position on abortion that will ever be accepted as legitimate in both Mississippi and Massachusetts, so I think the wiser course of action is to let the state legislatures decide, but that's a debatable proposition," Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster and strategist, told The Hill.

He added that if Republicans are going to argue for a national law, they need to seek legislation that is close to a "consensus middle ground," such as a 15-week rule that allows exceptions for pregnancies that risk the mother's life.

Another Republican strategist, also speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss party strategy, said he agrees with Graham.

"Democrats are going to run on abortion no matter what, any Republican who wants to win needs to take a stand on the issue instead of letting Democrats define them," the source commented.

Meanwhile, Senate Democrats, led by Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., have supported a limited agenda for the most part in hopes of keeping the party's majority, but discussions of abortion rights are a different matter.

Last month, Democrats brought the issue back up while marking the first anniversary of the Supreme Court's decision in the Dobbs vs. Jackson Women's Health Center, which overturned the Roe decision guaranteeing the right to an abortion.

Democrats have sought unanimous consent to pass four bills that protect the rights to an abortion and women's health.

The proposals include: protecting the right to contraception; allowing freedom to travel across state lines for an abortion; giving legal protection for doctors who provide abortions to women who go across state lines to obtain abortions; and protecting women's online health and location data from being used against them when seeking an abortion.