As House Republicans seek to hold onto their slim majority in the lower chamber, they have a nine-point advantage over Democrats, according to a new poll.
In the latest Rasmussen Reports survey, 49% of likely U.S. voters say they would vote for the Republican candidate if the elections for Congress were held today, while 40% say they would vote for the Democrat. Another 5% say they would vote for some other candidate and 7% weren't sure.
The polling firm notes that the new survey's findings are nearly identical to those of January 2022, in the run-up to the midterms in which Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., was ousted from the speakership. The final poll before Election Day 2022 revealed that the GOP had a five-point lead; the party ultimately gained nine seats to retake the House majority 222-213.
Just 18% rated Congress' job performance as good or excellent, which was down 2 points from November. Conversely, more say Congress is doing a poor job now than in November, with 53% saying so now and 52% saying so then. The perception that Congress is doing a poor job was shared by large majorities of all political affiliations, with 52% of Republicans, 47% of Democrats and 63% of independents giving Congress poor marks.
The poll found that the GOP's edge on the generic ballot is mainly due to its gains among independents. If the election were held today, 44% of independents would vote Republican and 30% would vote Democrat, with 10% saying they'd vote for some other candidate and 15% are undecided.
Among Republicans, 86% would vote for their party's congressional candidate and 78% of Democrats would vote for their party's candidate if the election were held today.
The "gender gap" is nonexistent on the generic ballot, with 49% of both men and women favoring Republican congressional candidates. When it comes to rating Congress poorly, however, 58% of men said lawmakers are doing a bad job versus 49% of women.
Voters under 40 are much less likely to rate Congress poorly than their elders and Republicans are preferred by a majority of older voters, despite Democrats having a slight advantage on the generic ballot among under-40 voters.
Congress was rated as doing a poor job by 56% of white voters, 45% of black voters and 49% of other minorities, according to the survey. Republicans are favored on the generic ballot by half of white voters, 40% of black voters and 51% of other minorities; 40% of white voters, 47% of black voters and 34% of other minorities would vote Democrat if the congressional elections were held today.
The poll was conducted Jan. 2-4 and surveyed 1,044 likely U.S. voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Nicole Weatherholtz ✉
Nicole Weatherholtz, a Newsmax general assignment reporter covers news, politics, and culture. She is a National Newspaper Association award-winning journalist.
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