Fed's Powell: Rate Hikes Aren't Automatic in Healthy Economy

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell cast a bright picture of the U.S. economy Wednesday and appeared to suggest that the Fed might consider a pause in its interest rate hikes next year to assess the impact of its credit tightening.

Powell’s comments ignited a rally on Wall Street, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average surging more than 200 points after his remarks were released.

Referring to the Fed’s gradual increases in its benchmark rate, Powell said, “there is no preset policy path.” Rather, he said, the Fed will assess the most recent economic and financial data in deciding whether or how fast to keep raising rates.

"We know that things often turn out to be quite different from even the most careful forecasts," Powell said in a speech that comes in the wake of last week's volatile market selloff. "Our gradual pace of raising interest rates has been an exercise in balancing risks."

Speaking to the Economic Club of New York, the Fed chairman also suggested that while some corporate debt loads have reached riskier levels, “we do not see dangerous excesses in the stock market.”

The central bank’s rate increases have gradually raised borrowing costs for consumers and businesses. Any slowdown or pause in its rate hikes would be welcome news for a stock market that has been battered by fears that the Fed’s continued credit tightening could end the long bull market.

While noting that some forms of corporate debt levels have become concerning, Powell the financial system and markets appear far sturdier than they did before the 2008 crisis.

The Fed chairman said the central bank is monitoring potential vulnerabilities in the banking system to ensure its continued stability.

“We see no major asset class,” Powell said, “where valuations appear far in excess of standard benchmarks.”

In an appearance earlier this month, Powell cited strong annual economic growth above 3 percent and unemployment at a near five-decade low of 3.7 percent. Those trends, he said, were coinciding with inflation remaining “right on target” at the Fed’s goal of 2 percent annual price increases.

But Powell also noted a number of looming risks, including the slowdown in global growth and the fading economic benefits of the tax cuts and government spending boost that took effect this year as well as the cumulative effect of the Fed’s own rate hikes. Many economists also worry about potential economic damage caused by President Donald Trump’s trade conflicts with China and other nations.

For his part, Trump has sought repeatedly to shift blame for any economic troubles to the Fed and its rate increases. In an interview Tuesday with the Washington Post, the president complained bluntly and at length about Powell, who was Trump’s hand-picked choice to lead the Fed.

Trump argued that the Fed’s policies were damaging the economy and pointed to the recent stock market declines and General Motors’ announcement Monday that it would cut up to 14,000 workers in North America and put five plants up for possible closure.

After keeping rates at a record low near zero for seven years, the Fed three years ago began gradually raising rates, including three hikes this year. Those increases have raised its benchmark rate to a still-historically-low range of 2 percent to 2.25 percent.

Higher interest rates tend to slow economic growth over time as well as pressure stock prices. For those reasons, this year’s hikes have made the Fed the target of unusual public attacks from Trump — criticism that has accelerated with the past month’s sharp declines in the stock market. Trump has complained that the Fed is threatening to undo the economic stimulus being provided by the tax cuts and that its rate hikes are unnecessary because inflation has remained relatively low.

In its most recent projections, the Fed forecast that it would raise rates in December for the fourth time this year, followed by three more hikes in 2019.

Analysts think a rate hike next month is all but certain, possibly in part because they think the Fed doesn’t want to appear to be bowing to pressure from Trump. But some economists say three rate increases for next year are beginning to look less certain.

Other Fed watchers still expect at least one or two rate increases in 2019 before the central bank pauses to observe how the economy is performing.

In a speech Tuesday, Vice Chairman Richard Clarida suggested that the Fed would continue to strive to be “data dependent” by using the latest readings on the economy “with a healthy dose of judgment and humility” to determine its interest-rate policy.