A new poll shows Democrat James Talarico narrowly leading potential Republican opponents in Texas' closely watched U.S. Senate race, in a state where Republicans have dominated statewide elections for decades.
The survey, conducted by Texas Public Opinion Research, found Talarico ahead of Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, 44% to 41%, and ahead of Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton 46% to 41%.
Democrats have not won a statewide office in Texas since 1994, and recent election cycles have shown polling strength for Democratic candidates that has not translated into Election Day victories.
Cornyn, a four-term incumbent first elected in 2002, is seeking a fifth term after winning reelection in 2020 by nearly 10 percentage points.
He and Paxton advanced to a May 26 Republican runoff after neither secured a majority in the March primary, with the winner set to face Talarico in the general election.
Early voting in the runoff is scheduled to begin in mid-May, adding urgency to a race that has drawn significant national attention.
The poll suggests little difference in general election performance between Cornyn and Paxton, indicating that the Republican nominee could face a similarly competitive matchup regardless of who advances.
Talarico's support in the survey is driven by voters of color, independents and college-educated Texans, with independents favoring him by wide margins in both matchups.
The findings reflect broader national dynamics that could shape the race, including shifting voter sentiment and evolving coalition patterns.
Democrats have pointed to declining approval ratings for President Donald Trump and shifting attitudes among Latino voters as factors that could tighten the race, echoing the 2018 Senate contest, when Democrat Beto O’Rourke came within three percentage points of unseating Sen. Ted Cruz.
At the same time, Texas remains a reliably Republican state at the federal level, and nonpartisan analysts continue to view the seat as leaning Republican.
The Cook Political Report rates the race as "likely Republican," highlighting the structural advantages Republicans retain despite competitive polling.
The contest is also shaping up to be one of the most expensive in state history, with both parties investing heavily as Democrats seek a potential pickup in a cycle where control of the Senate is at stake.
Republicans currently hold a majority in the chamber, and Texas is emerging as one of several high-profile battlegrounds that could influence the balance of power in Washington.
Texas Public Opinion Research surveyed 1,018 likely voters in the Lone Star State from April 17 to 20, 2026 with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
Theodore Bunker ✉
Theodore Bunker, a Newsmax writer, has more than a decade covering news, media, and politics.
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