No Labels is dismissing outside efforts to quash its plans for a third-party presidential ticket in 2024, saying the opposition is proof that an alternative bid could win.
"For months, there has been a coordinated effort by partisan Democratic operatives and former never-Trump Republicans to subvert No Labels' 2024 presidential insurance project, weaving a tale that an independent ticket could never win the presidency in 2024 and could only 'spoil' the election in favor of former President Trump," the group wrote in a memo obtained by the Washington Examiner. "Now, these operatives are out with a new poll that unintentionally proves the point No Labels has been making all along: There is a historic opening for an independent Unity presidential ticket in 2024."
The memo comes amid reports that a bipartisan group of former lawmakers — concerned about siphoning votes away from President Joe Biden — is planning to block a third-party ticket by No Labels. The group has reportedly already commissioned polling in key battleground states that shows a third-party candidate would propel Trump to another term in the White House.
According to polling by Prime Group, Biden would win reelection by 3 percentage points in a theoretical matchup with Trump, but Trump would win by approximately 2 points when a "moderate, independent, third-party candidate" is thrown into the mix.
In both cases, however, there exist a substantial percentage of undecided voters. If given a choice between Biden, Trump and a third option, roughly 21% of voters say they are undecided, which No Labels says gives it an "unprecedented opening."
"When you start off at 21% so far out from the election before any kind of campaign has been launched to inform voters about the vision and issue positions a moderate independent ticket would have, the only thing that you can expect is growth," Dritan Nesho, chief pollster for No Labels, told the Examiner.
While outside Democrat groups have tried to pull the plug on an alternative No Labels bid for months, the group pointed to its own polling that shows Trump beating Biden in swing state races that were crucial to the current president's 2020 victory, including Georgia and Arizona. Support for Trump and Biden drops when a third-party candidate is introduced in either of those states.
"For us, this was a great validation of our own research of the potential path to victory for an independent ticket," Nesho said. "Introducing a new choice is going to shake those interests up, both on the Democratic side and on the Republican side. You wouldn't attack an initiative or an effort if you didn't think that initiative or that effort has the ability to win."
Both Republican and Democrat voters said the front-runners for the 2024 presidential nomination are not their best bets, despite the increasing likelihood of Trump and Biden squaring off again next year.
According to a new Economist-YouGov poll, 61% of voters said Biden is not the strongest Democrat candidate and 53% of voters said Trump is not the strongest candidate the Republicans could run in 2024.
Among voters who cast their ballot for Trump in 2020, 84% were skeptical that Biden is the strongest candidate the Democrats could put up in 2024, while 76% of Biden 2020 voters were skeptical that Trump was the strongest candidate for the Republicans next year.
Voters who picked Biden in 2020 also are concerned that the president might not be the strongest Democrat candidate, with 40% saying he is not the strongest, versus 35% who say he is the party's strongest candidate.
The gap was wider among Trump 2020 voters, with 28% saying the former president is not the strongest candidate the GOP could pick in 2024, compared to 55% who say he is the strongest.
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