Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush is rising in the polls, but some are questioning whether or not his dominance will stick.
Since Bush officially announced his candidacy on June 15, his polling average on
Real Clear Politics spiked from 10.8 percent to 16.3 percent, where it is now, and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, his nearest rival, is almost 6 percentage points behind him.
He is also five points ahead of Walker and billionaire Donald Trump in New Hampshire,
according to the current RCP average.
However, it remains to be seen if Bush's spike in the polls will stay, and if he really is managing to break away from the crowded Republican field,
Politico is reporting.
One factor is a post-announcement surge that many candidates experience after they announce their White House bids.
Also, some of his biggest rivals, like Walker and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, have been out of the spotlight, due to official business they've been preoccupied with in Madison and in Washington, respectively.
GOP pollster Frank Luntz believes it is no accident that Bush's poll numbers are rising.
"No one ever challenged his credentials or his character," Luntz told Politico. "The question was always whether he had the passion and conviction GOP primary voters insist on."
"Over the past month, he's demonstrated both, and that’s why he's rising," Luntz added.
Other factors that have helped Bush is being able to show his ability to handle himself on the foreign stage during his recent trip to Europe, and his transparency on the campaign trail through his willingness to answer questions candidly posed to him by voters at town hall meetings.
Despite Bush's spike in the national polls, Politico reports that such polls typically reflect name ID and media coverage more than popularity among primary voters. But being in the top 10 in the national polls will qualify the Florida Republican for a spot in first GOP debate hosted by Fox News in August.
Ron Kaufman, a veteran GOP lobbyist and Bush supporter, told Politico that "it's far too early and there are far too many candidates to believe it's going to be Jeb, but he's positioned really well. As this marathon progresses, he looks better and better."
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