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Jeb Likely GOP Nominee, But Trump Is a Contender: The Hill

Jeb Likely GOP Nominee, But Trump Is a Contender: The Hill
(Bill Pugliano/Getty Images; Kena Bantancur/AFP/Getty Images)

By    |   Monday, 06 July 2015 08:16 AM

Jumps in national polling as well as in New Hampshire make Jeb Bush the most likely GOP presidential candidate to receive the party’s nomination, according to The Hill’s latest rankings of the top 10 Republicans in the field most likely to become the nominee.

Bush rose from the second spot in The Hill’s May rankings, and a CNN/ORC poll conducted in late June found that only Bush and billionaire real estate mogul Donald Trump garnered double-digit support among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.

In that poll, Bush was at 19 percent (up from 13 percent in December) while Trump jumped to 12 percent, a 9 percentage point rise since announcing his candidacy.

The others in the CNN/ORC top five included former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (8 percent) and 7 percent apiece for retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker fell out of the top five in CNN's most recent survey.

The Hill’s rankings saw Rubio fall from the first to the third spot. Despite his broad appeal, which includes his youth and charisma, Cuban heritage and hawkish foreign policy views, Rubio is placing in also-ran status in the Real Clear Politics national polling average, where he came in fourth.

In The Hill’s rankings, Walker separates Miami's Bush and Rubio as the No. 2 Republican most likely to win the nomination. Walker is expected to formally announce in Wisconsin this month that he is entering the race.

Walker has a 17.5 percent edge in Iowa (according to the Real Clear Politics average), and a win there could solidify him as "the main conservative challenger to Bush," the website reports. If that edge carries to New Hampshire and South Carolina, Walker would be in a good position. On the downside, Walker may lack "the personal dynamism to deliver on his potential."

Other notable developments in The Hill’s current rankings were Ben Carson’s climb to fourth (from seventh in May) and Trump's to No. 8.

"Trump is clearly on the move in the polls, which earns him a place in these rankings. In three recent polls — one national, one in New Hampshire, and one in Iowa — Trump has placed second, second and joint second, respectively," The Hill reports.

"It is more likely than ever that he will earn a position in the first two televised GOP debates, which are capped at 10 candidates apiece," it said. "There is no believable scenario in which Trump becomes the GOP nominee but he is well-placed to stick around for a long time, becoming an irritant to more serious candidates."

Huckabee’s No. 5 spot remained unchanged. Kentucky's Paul and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz held the sixth and seventh positions, while New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie remained steady in the ninth spot. Ohio Gov. John Kasich, previously unranked, was 10th. Kasich’s announcement is scheduled for July 21.

Former Texas Gov. Rick Perry and former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina have dropped out of the The Hill’s Top 10 since its May rankings.

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Jumps in national polling as well as in New Hampshire make Jeb Bush the most likely GOP presidential candidate to receive the party's nomination, according to The Hill's latest rankings of the top 10 Republicans, with Scott Walker in second place and Donald Trump "on the move."
jeb bush, polls, marco rubio, donald trump, scott walker
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2015-16-06
Monday, 06 July 2015 08:16 AM
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