With the Mueller Report, Brexit turmoil, Israeli elections, and the Notre Dame tragedy, many may not have tuned into this week’s hugely complex elections in Indonesia.
A key relationship for the United States and a model for a modern democracy in the Muslim world (in fact, the world’s largest Muslim-majority nation) the electoral outcome in Indonesia may help shape economic and defense stability in the region and beyond.
Many geopolitical factors make Indonesia a key relationship for the U.S. Indonesia is the fourth most populous nation, the eleventh largest global economy, and the largest economy in Southeast Asia. Its largely positive economic outlook is driven by domestic demand. Furthermore, Indonesia has shown willingness to push back against China’s growing influence in the region by forming a "comprehensive strategic partnership” with other regional players, such as India. Moreover, both the U.S. and Indonesia are motivated to curb the spread of extremism in the region that affects not only global security but also economic and trade stability.
On a visit to Indonesia last year, then-Defense Secretary James Mattis expressed enthusiasm to increase bi-lateral defense, maritime, and counter-terrorism cooperation. In comments particularly aimed at countering Chinese bullying, Mattis expressed, “Every nation matters and there should not be any bullying or shredding of trust toward others.”
Several factors make last Wednesday’s elections breathtakingly complex.
The BBC reports, "About 245,000 candidates will be running for more than 20,000 national and local legislative seats across a country made up of around 18,000 islands and covering 1.9 million sq km (735,400 sq miles)." Demographically, nearly 40 percent of voters will be aged 17 to 35. Unsurprisingly with a huge voting block being so young, social media plays a key role, with all of its potential to spread fake news and disinformation.
Vying for the top spot was a re-match of the bitter 2014 race between incumbent President Jokowi Widodo and former general Prabowo Subianto.
While final results won’t settle for several weeks, exit polls portend the incumbent to triumph once again. President Jokowi had success in the prior election distinguishing himself as the candidate of the common man who came neither from the military, nor the political elite. He is known for his emphasis on infrastructure and price slashing to gain popular support. However, opposition highlights his government’s growing debt and dependence on foreign investment, particularly from China.
Other major criticisms of Jokowi have taken the form that, under his leadership, Indonesia has experienced “a downturn in the quality of Indonesian democracy, associated with the continued mainstreaming and legitimation of a conservative and anti-pluralistic brand of political Islam; the partisan manipulation of key institutions of state; and the increasingly open repression and disempowerment of political opposition.”
Yet another concern of the existing government is the “sweeping online criminal defamation law, which allows anyone to file a complaint and carries a sentence of up to four years in prison….used by government officials and influential people to stifle free expression.”
Finally of concern is Jokowi’s running mate, the ultra-conservative Muslim cleric Ma’ruf Amin whose selection challenges Jokowi’s commitment to improving human rights issues.
As for Mr. Prabowo and his running mate businessman, Sandiaga Uno, their support came largely in the form of the practical, with promises to reduce significantly the price of food and utilities in very short order.
One supporter interviewed indicated: “We have high hopes for zero-two [Prabowo] to become president, a president who defends our rights, cheap prices, cheap education for our children, cheap fuel prices and basic necessities.”
Prabowo, the son a Christian mother has gone to lengths to prove his credentials to a majority Muslim nation and has styled himself a patriot. Aware that Indonesians are growing increasingly wary of Beijing, Mr. Prabowo, for his part had promised to review all Chinese projects in Indonesia.
Notwithstanding the final outcome of the elections, this is a critical time for Indonesia vis-a-vis its global stewardship, and an opportunity for it to showcase its capacity to be the Muslim democracy that supports global progress and stability. The big question that remains is: will continued Jokowi leadership mean a closer-than-ever relationship with Beijing?
Lee Cohen is a Senior Fellow of the Danube Institute in Budapest and the London Center for Policy Research in New York. He spent years as a policy advisor for the House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee.
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