Low Atlantic Storm Activity Defying Predictions

For the first time since 2017, there have been no hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean during the months of June and July, marking a rather quiet start to an anticipated active hurricane season and, so far, defying forecasters’ predictions.

Meteorologists use a metric called the "ACE Index" to track storm duration and intensity.

The season's ACE Index is currently pacing at the lowest level since 1992, all driven by an Atlantic weather pattern that has prevented storm formation. Intense dust and strong winds across the central Atlantic Ocean have suppressed storms from forming and moving west.

The Atlantic has gone more than 300 days without a hurricane, the seventh-longest drought since 1965.

The slow start to a hurricane season does not necessarily translate to a lackluster year. In 1992, Hurricane Andrew hit the United States in August with Category 5 strength causing billions in damage, especially in hard-hit areas in south Florida. Only five additional storms formed the rest of the year after Andrew.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, tropical activity spikes from late August through mid-October, which accounts for over 70% of tropical storm days. While the season has started slow, it does not mean the fall months will maintain that pattern.

The pattern in the Atlantic is starting to change and has the potential to produce an uptick in storm activity by early September. The Madden-Julian Oscillation – a pattern that circulates the globe – will shift into a phase that increases lift and moisture, prime ingredients for storm development.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs through Nov. 30. 

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