Goldman Sachs warned that Brent oil prices could hit nearly $120 a barrel if the war in the Middle East drags on.
The investment bank's change in outlook was published Sunday after peace talks between the U.S. and Iran stalled.
Analysts now estimate that Brent crude will trade at about $90 per barrel in the last quarter of 2026, up from an earlier projection of $80. U.S. crude is forecast to average $83 in October-December, up from $75.
"We now assume a normalization in Gulf exports by end-June (v mid-May prior) and a slower Gulf production recovery," analysts said in a research paper titled, "Higher Prices and Net Upside Risks for Even Longer." "The economic risks are larger than our crude base case alone suggests because of the net upside risks to oil prices, unusually high refined product prices, products shortages risks, and the unprecedented scale of the shock."
Brent crude prices are up about 67% since the start of the year.
In its "adverse scenario," analysts, led by Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research and head of oil research, write that Brent crude averages at just over $100 a barrel by the end of 2026 if exports from the Gulf normalize by the end of July.
If flows recover below 70%, though, prices could reach $120 per barrel.
Iran on Monday offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the U.S. lifts its blockade and the war ends, setting aside negotiations on its nuclear ambitions for a later date.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio in a Fox News interview later Monday appeared to dismiss any Iranian proposal to clear the strait.
"What they mean by opening the straits is, 'Yes, the straits are open, as long as you coordinate with Iran, get our permission, or we'll blow you up and you pay us,'" Rubio said, when asked about Trump's claim Saturday that Iran had sent a "much better" offer.
"That's not opening the straits. Those are international waterways," Rubio said. "They cannot normalize, nor can we tolerate them trying to normalize, a system in which the Iranians decide who gets to use an international waterway and how much you have to pay them to use it."
Solange Reyner ✉
Solange Reyner is a writer and editor for Newsmax. She has more than 15 years in the journalism industry reporting and covering news, sports and politics.
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