An escalating disruption to fertilizer supplies is raising alarm among governments, farmers, and international organizations, with experts warning the world could be heading toward a major food crisis.
At the center of the problem is the Arabian Gulf, a region that plays an outsized role in producing and exporting raw ingredients essential for modern agriculture.
As conflict and shipping disruptions choke off supplies moving through the Strait of Hormuz, the consequences are rippling across global food systems.
Recent reports indicate that about 30% of global fertilizer trade passes through the strait, a critical maritime chokepoint now severely constrained by instability.
The Gulf region supplies 34% to 35% of the world's urea, 25% of ammonia, and as much as 45% of sulfur, key inputs for nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers.
"These are extremely significant quantities," said market analyst Keyman, noting that such volumes "cannot be replaced" easily from other regions.
Fertilizer production is tied to natural gas, which is abundant in Gulf countries such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Iran.
This has made the region a global hub for nitrogen-based fertilizers like urea, essential for boosting crop yields.
Without them, agricultural productivity can drop sharply.
"We need synthetic fertilizer production to feed 8 billion people," said Lorenzo Rosa of the Carnegie Institution for Science, warning that prolonged shortages could have "dramatic results."
The crisis has been exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and conflict affecting shipping routes.
Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed dramatically, with some estimates suggesting shipping volumes have fallen by as much as 75%.
As a result, fertilizer exports from the Gulf have stalled, and production in some countries has been curtailed due to energy and infrastructure disruptions.
The impact is already visible in global markets.
Prices for urea — a key nitrogen fertilizer — have surged between 30% and 40% in recent weeks, according to multiple reports. In the U.S., farmers report similar increases, with some struggling to secure enough supply ahead of the planting season.
Svein Tore Holsether, CEO of fertilizer giant Yara International, warned that the situation could have severe consequences for food production.
A prolonged disruption, he said, could reduce crop yields by up to 50% in some regions.
The timing is bad, as the war coincides with the Northern Hemisphere's spring planting season, when farmers apply fertilizer to maximize yields.
Without adequate supply, crops such as wheat, corn, and rice may suffer, tightening global food availability later this year.
Developing countries are expected to bear the brunt of the crisis.
Nations in Africa and South Asia, many of which rely heavily on imported fertilizers, are particularly vulnerable and could face acute shortages, leading to reduced harvests and rising food insecurity.
According to U.N. estimates cited in recent coverage, up to 45 million more people could face acute hunger if disruptions persist.
Compounding the problem, China — another major fertilizer exporter — has imposed new export restrictions to protect domestic supply, removing tens of millions of tons from global markets.
Experts warn that fertilizer shortages are uniquely dangerous because there are no significant global stockpiles to cushion the shock.
Unlike oil, which can be stored, fertilizer must be produced and delivered in sync with planting cycles.
"When this transport stops ... the cycle of food production stops," one industry analysis noted, highlighting the lack of viable alternatives.
With supply chains strained, prices rising, and planting seasons underway, the crisis underscores a stark fact: Global food security remains deeply dependent on a narrow set of regions and trade routes.
If disruptions in the Gulf continue, the world may soon feel the full impact — not just in higher prices, but also in empty shelves and growing hunger.
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