Former President Donald Trump is leading Vice President Kamala Harris in the key battleground state of Pennsylvania by 1 point, a new Emerson College Polling/RealClearPennsylvania poll found.
The survey, which was released on Friday, found Trump leading Harris among likely voters in the Keystone State 49% to 48% in a one-on-one matchup. When undecided voters were pressed to make a choice, Trump's lead expanded to 51% versus Harris' 49%.
The candidates are statistically tied, however, as both totals fell within the margin of error.
When third-party candidates were included on the ballot, Trump and Harris each received 47% support, while independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. received 3%. Another 2% were undecided and no other third-party candidate received more than 0.3% support.
In a state that went red in 2016 to clinch the presidency for Trump and swung blue in 2020 to do the same for President Joe Biden, the poll's results highlight how contentious the battle for Pennsylvania's 19 electoral votes is shaping up to be.
According to the survey, independents are leaning slightly toward Trump, 48% to Harris' 45%. The former president also has a 17-point advantage among voters ages 50-69, leading Harris 57% to 40%, and a smaller lead among voters ages 70 and older, 52% to 47%.
Harris has a significant advantage among new and young voters, the survey found, leading 61% to 31% among voters who did not vote in 2020 and 61% to 36% among voters younger than 40. She also has an edge among union voters and those in households with union members.
"Pennsylvania likely voters in unions break for Harris by 15 points, 57% to 42%, while those not in a union and without union members in the household break for Trump, 50% to 48%," said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. "Those with union members in the household break from Trump, 50% to 42%."
Trump leads Harris 58% to 40% among Protestant voters, and 60% to 39% among Roman Catholic voters, the poll found. Atheists and agnostics break 84% to 13% in Harris' favor and those with no particular religious affiliation support Harris 56% to 39%.
An Emerson survey of Pennsylvania voters from last month found Trump leading Harris by a larger margin of 51% to 45% among very likely voters.
The poll was conducted Aug. 13-14 and surveyed 1,000 likely Pennsylvania voters. The margin of error was plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Nicole Weatherholtz ✉
Nicole Weatherholtz, a Newsmax general assignment reporter covers news, politics, and culture. She is a National Newspaper Association award-winning journalist.
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