A new poll shows Louisiana’s Republican Senate primary remains a tight three-way contest, with no candidate positioned to secure an outright majority and avoid a runoff.
The Emerson College Polling/KLFY News 10 survey released Thursday found Treasurer John Fleming leading with 28% support, followed closely by U.S. Rep. Julia Letlow at 27%, while incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy trails with 21%, and 22% of voters remain undecided.
“If the Republican Primary for Senate were held tomorrow, the poll indicates the race would move to a June runoff, as no candidate appears to meet the 50% threshold,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a statement released with the survey.
“Fleming’s strength is among male voters, who support him over Letlow 36% to 27%; 20% of men support Cassidy,” Kimball added, noting that “women are more split: 27% support Letlow, 23% Cassidy, and 21% Fleming.”
The findings underscore the volatility of the May 16 primary, which features a crowded Republican field and is widely expected to advance the top two finishers to a runoff under Louisiana’s new closed primary system.
Recent polling and analysis have consistently shown a fragmented electorate, with no clear frontrunner and a high likelihood of a runoff between the leading candidates.
The survey also highlights generational divides within the GOP electorate.
Voters under 40 favor Cassidy at 30%, while those over 60 are nearly evenly split between Fleming at 32% and Letlow at 31%, and middle-aged voters show a narrower spread among the three candidates.
Cassidy faces notable headwinds in voter perception, with a 49% unfavorable rating compared to 30% favorable, while Letlow holds a 40% favorable rating and Fleming’s favorability stands at 42%, though many voters remain unfamiliar with him.
The race has also been shaped by alignment with President Donald Trump, whose endorsement of Letlow earlier this year reshaped the contest and intensified divisions within the state’s Republican Party.
On policy alignment, 41% of respondents said Letlow is most supportive of Trump’s agenda, compared to 26% for Fleming and 21% for Cassidy.
Cassidy, a two-term senator, has faced lingering backlash from some Republican voters over his 2021 vote to convict Trump in his second impeachment trial, an issue that continues to influence the primary dynamic.
Fleming, a former congressman and current state treasurer, and Letlow, a sitting member of Congress, have both sought to consolidate conservative voters, emphasizing their alignment with Trump-era policies.
Economic concerns remain the dominant issue for Republican voters in the state, with 43% naming the economy as their top priority, followed by crime and education.
The Emerson College Polling survey was conducted April 24-26, 2026 among 500 likely Republican primary voters in the Pelican State and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.
With less than three weeks until voting begins, the data suggests the race remains highly competitive, with a significant share of undecided voters and no candidate nearing the majority needed to avoid a second round.
Theodore Bunker ✉
Theodore Bunker, a Newsmax writer, has more than a decade covering news, media, and politics.
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