The Trump administration has drawn up a tiered assessment of NATO members, separating allies seen as supportive of the U.S. war against Iran from those that refused, laying the groundwork for a possible reshuffling of troop deployments, joint exercises, and weapons sales.
The framework was shared with European officials ahead of NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte's April 8 visit to Washington and signals that President Donald Trump is moving to act on his warnings of consequences for allies he views as free riders.
The criteria draw on a framework Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth outlined at the Reagan National Defense Forum on Dec. 6, 2025, saying "model allies" such as Israel, South Korea, Poland, Germany, and the Baltic states would receive "special favor," while those failing to contribute to collective defense would "face consequences."
Three European diplomats and a U.S. defense official described the list to Politico, which first reported its existence.
The immediate trigger is Operation Epic Fury, the U.S. campaign against Iran that began on Feb. 28. Spain, France, and the United Kingdom declined or slow-walked requests for airspace, basing, or logistics support, while Romania, Bulgaria, and smaller partners assisted.
Romania's parliament on March 11 approved temporary U.S. use of Mihail Kogalniceanu Air Base and Campia Turzii for refueling and surveillance tied to the war.
White House spokesperson Anna Kelly told Politico that countries "we protect with thousands of troops have not been there for us throughout Operation Epic Fury," adding that Trump "has made his thoughts on this unfair dynamic clear."
Specific penalties remain undefined.
One European diplomat told Politico that "they don't seem to have very concrete ideas" on punishments, noting that relocating American troops from Europe "mainly punishes the U.S."
Poland, which hosts roughly 10,000 U.S. troops and covers most associated costs, and Romania, whose Black Sea base is being expanded into one of NATO's largest, are seen as likely beneficiaries of any redistribution.
Spain sits at the opposite end.
At the June 2025 Hague summit, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez's government secured an exemption from NATO's new 5% of GDP defense spending target, drawing a warning from Trump that Spain would "pay double" on trade.
The effort is surfacing amid broader strain in the alliance.
Trump has publicly weighed a U.S. withdrawal, called the bloc a "paper tiger," and after his April 8 meeting with Rutte posted on Truth Social that NATO "WASN'T THERE WHEN WE NEEDED THEM."
The approach is drawing pushback on Capitol Hill.
Senate Armed Services Chairman Roger Wicker, R-Miss., said in a Tuesday press release that during a hearing on U.S. forces in the Indo-Pacific that "it is not helpful when American leaders speak of our alliances with derision," and urged clarity about the "political, strategic, and moral benefits that our country receives from its alliances."
Jim Thomas ✉
Jim Thomas is a writer based in Indiana. He holds a bachelor's degree in Political Science, a law degree from U.I.C. Law School, and has practiced law for more than 20 years.
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