Intelligence Assessment: Khamenei Plans to Flee to Russia if Protests Grow

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has prepared a contingency plan to flee Tehran, most likely to Moscow, with a small group of aides and family members if nationwide protests overwhelm his security forces or trigger defections, according to an intelligence assessment.

The report, obtained by The Times of London, said the ayatollah, 86, will put the plan in play if the Iranian army and security forces who have been ordered to suppress the protests are determined to be deserting, defecting, or refusing to follow the government's commands.

The escape plan includes up to 20 people from Khamenei's inner circle.

This includes his son Mojtaba Khamenei, who has long been viewed by analysts as a potential successor.

An intelligence source cited by The Times said the preparations include identifying exit routes, securing transportation, and gathering assets abroad, including cash and property, to facilitate a safe departure.

Beni Sabti, a former Israeli intelligence officer who fled Iran years after the 1979 Islamic Revolution, told The Times that Russia would be Khamenei's likely destination, considering his longtime ties to President Vladimir Putin and Iran's strategic alignment with Moscow.

Khamenei "admires Putin, while the Iranian culture is more similar to the Russian culture," said Sabti.

The report comes as the Trump administration is continuing with its "maximum pressure" campaign over the Islamic Republic.

On Sunday, after the seizure and arrest of former Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, the U.S. State Department's Farsi account published a photo of President Donald Trump along with the message: "President Trump is a man of action. If you didn't know, now you know."

The alleged escape plan was compared to the flight of Syria's then-leader Bashar Assad, an ally of Tehran, who left Damascus aboard a plane bound for Moscow after opposition forces stormed the Syrian capital in December 2024.

Khamenei is believed to control vast financial holdings through a network of organizations, including Setad, one of Iran's most powerful semi-state foundations.

A 2013 Reuters investigation estimated Setad's assets at about $95 billion, including property, companies, and other holdings ultimately controlled by Khamenei.

The report also noted that several senior Iranian officials have family members living outside the country, including in the United States, Canada, and the Gulf.

Among those mentioned was Ali Larijani, a senior political figure and Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran.

The Times report comes as protests fueled by economic hardship, high inflation, and deteriorating living conditions have spread across Iran in recent days.

Demonstrations have been reported in Tehran and other major cities, as well as in the religious center of Qom, traditionally seen as a stronghold of the Islamic Republic.

Protesters have accused security forces, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Basij militia, police, and the regular army, of using violent tactics such as live fire, tear gas, and water cannons to suppress demonstrations.

Those forces ultimately answer to Khamenei, who holds final authority over the military, judiciary and state media.

According to the intelligence assessment cited by The Times, Khamenei has taken extensive measures over decades to prevent defections, including tightly controlling key appointments and protecting loyalists.

However, the assessment said the supreme leader has appeared weaker both mentally and physically since last year's 12-day war with Israel.

Khamenei has rarely appeared in public in recent weeks and has not been seen or heard from during several days of unrest, according to the report.

During the war with Israel, he reportedly sheltered in a bunker, a move described in the assessment as reflecting a deep obsession with survival.

The assessment characterized Khamenei as a deeply paranoid but pragmatic leader, ideologically driven yet willing to make tactical compromises to preserve the regime.

It said that heavy losses suffered by Iran-backed groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas have intensified public anger, with protesters questioning Tehran's spending abroad while living standards at home continue to erode.