West Right on No No-Fly; Ukraine, Russia Should Work It Out

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has made passionate pleas for a no-fly zone over Ukraine one of his most urgent and often repeated requests of the international community. He continues to argue for the no-fly zone in every corridor, every hall, every plenum that provides him with a stage and an audience.

The response has been neither what he wants nor what he expected.

Support for Ukraine has come in many forms. Military aid, humanitarian aid, medical care, food, volunteers, have all flowed towards Ukraine. But no no-fly zone.

Beyond the obvious, that Ukraine is not a member of NATO and that it might well cause World War III which is a very dangerous possible outcome of a no-fly zone, there has been a paucity of explanations as to why a no-fly zone over Ukraine is neither a good nor a sound strategic move for NATO to enforce.

It’s not just about letting a bad situation spin out of control and making it worse. There is a strategy behind NATO’s “no” to a no-fly zone decision.

The United States and NATO are actively working to stymie Russia and to support Ukraine. Not just sanctions, but through political means as well. That should be clearly understood. And it should be just as clearly understood that Russia has become a pariah nation.

It is wrong and dangerous to think that because NATO and the U.S. are not doing exactly what Ukrainian President Zelenskyy is asking, it means that they are not doing anything or not doing enough to save and help support Ukraine. What is not clear is that by granting Zelenskyy what he wants, his coveted no-fly zone, Ukraine will achieve the president’s lofty goals. It may, in fact, achieve the opposite effect.

A no-fly zone is not simply about stopping planes from flying over Ukraine.

A no-fly zone over Ukraine means NATO directly attacking Russian ground forces, especially the Russian anti-aircraft missile batteries S-300 and S-400. It means direct engagement with Russian troops on the ground. It means shooting Russian planes and Russian attack helicopters.

It means the United States and NATO versus Russia, and dogfights over Ukrainian skies.

More importantly, it means playing right into Putin’s hands.

Conflict between NATO and Russia will do more to galvanize the Russian masses than almost anything else that can or will happen during the course of this conflict. From the very start Vladimir Putin’s strategy has been to portray the world as attacking Russia. The world against Russia as Russia tries to save the world from evil.

External intervention of this magnitude will backfire. A no-fly zone over Ukraine will cause the Russian masses to throw their support behind Putin and his war. No more waffling or wondering if maybe Putin is not truly being honest with them. Russia will appear as the victim. Their invasion into Ukraine will appear justified and righteous.

There is no doubt that in a conflict in which Russia is pitted against NATO and the United States, Russia will lose. But at what cost? The cost, to both sides, would be gargantuan. Military losses and civilian lives lost, not to mention financial losses, would be huge.

And yes, the potential for a wrong step could easily cause another World War. And yes, again, missteps happen in all wars.

We haven’t even begun to add Putin’s supporters, his fan base, to the mix. China, North Korea and Iran are Russia’s cheering squad during this conflict. Should that triumvirate become involved and lend Russia an active hand, they would effectively convert not just Europe, but Europe the Middle East and Asia into a sea of flames and war.

At this stage, one month and counting into this conflict, the best way to save lives and stop the war is to get Putin and Zelenskyy to accept terms of agreement. Most of the compromising will need to be done by Zelenskyy and Ukraine. Both the parties are fully aware of what needs to be done.

Sometimes, you just have to swallow your pride — personal pride and national pride.

The compromises will be difficult for Ukraine. Russia holds most of the cards in the negotiations. They will include territorial concessions and a reduction of army size and strength.

The Eastern sections of Ukraine will either become Russian provinces or even be enveloped into Russia proper. Ukraine will be required to change its constitution and agree to no longer express aspirations to become NATO members.

Russia will insist that Ukraine not be aligned with the West, that Ukraine be a “neutral” country, like Switzerland and Sweden. And they will have to recognize that this conflict was not a big win for them. That they will not control all of Ukraine. That Vladimir Putin will not be president of Ukraine, that Volodymyr Zelenskyy will retain that title and position.

This will not be a win-win for either country. But neither does it have to be a greater loss than it already is. While the no-fly zone will never fly with NATO and the United States, Ukraine can still soar, as long as the Russians and Ukrainians assess their losses, cut their losses and sit down at a negotiating table. The sooner, the better.