Is Biden's Mideast Trip a Setup for Failure?

U.S. President Joe Biden is looking for a win when he travels to the Middle East. But a win is a long shot. Granted, he might take a few steps in the right direction. And he may even lay the groundwork for future wins. But a win — I don’t think so.

It is highly unlikely that any real, substantive, positive, successes will come from this Biden trip to the Middle East. What is more likely, actually very likely, is that the president of the United States will be true to form and treat the world to a few more faux pas and maybe a malaprop or two.

U.S. presidents often attend multi-national summits. Biden is no exception and just returned from one such summit in Europe. But trips during which the president visits a nation and its leaders, like this impending trip to the Middle East, these trips are different. They have a purpose. They are taken for a specific reason.

And there are only two reasons for a U.S. presidential trip. Reason number one is to secure results. Reason number two is as a gesture of support.

Interestingly, this presidential visit to the Middle East is a combo, a double header, a hybrid. President Biden is embarking on a solo visit to Israel — and then he is going to Saudi Arabia to attend a Summit.

Forget that Biden is visiting Israel when the country is being governed by a newly-instated caretaker prime minister. That’s not an insurmountable or major problem. The major problem involves the second portion of this trip, the Saudi portion.

It’s a real problem.

In the course of campaigning for the presidency of the United States, Candidate Biden called Saudi Arabia a pariah state. And ever since, the now-president and his team have continued in that vein and have been very vocal in their condemnation of the Saudis.

During a presidential debate in November of 2019 speaking about Saudi Arabia, Biden said: "I would make it very clear. We were not going to sell more weapons to them. We were going to make them pay the price and make them the pariah that they are. There's very little redeeming value in the present government of Saudi Arabia."

He has since changed his tune. Biden is walking back those comments. He now says that he will help work on stability in the region. In his words: "I'm not going to change my view on human rights. But as president of the United States my job is to bring peace if I can. And that's what I'm going to try to do."

Biden and his team insist that while he will be in Saudi Arabia, he will not meet with Saudi rulers in person. But that is a blatant misdirect.

The rulers of Saudi Arabia and the leader of the United States will be in the same room at the same time and they will be speaking to one another. They will certainly find a corner and have a semi-private conversation. And they will probably even meet privately somewhere else.

OK. Biden will be reneging on his campaign promise. Americans can forgive him. That has become routine in American politics. But the Saudis?

The Biden administration regularly calls attention to human rights violations in Saudi Arabia. Not just the brutal murder of U.S./Saudi citizen Jamal Khashoggi. Washington also refers to women’s rights and prisoner’s rights, to brutal executions and to the use of Koranic law and punishment.

And now, the United States now has the gall to ask Saudi leaders to crank up oil exports.

Well, you don’t always get what you want. The Saudis may have a surprise response for the United States. Saudi Arabia may not agree to that request.

They will have a planned, polite, diplomatic and well-crafted response. And why wouldn’t they?

Saudi Arabia wants the United States to stop publicly calling out Saudi human rights violations. And Joe Biden has handed them their ace — and on their home turf.

In order for the U.S. president to move the Saudis toward complying with his wishes, in order to convince Saudi Arabia to pump more oil and dump it into the world market, Biden is going to have to agree to stop calling out Saudi Arabia.

He will try, and it will not be easy. He will praise the Saudis for their role in trying to tamp down the war in Yemen. But that will not be enough.

The Saudi public persona, their machismo, their dedication to Islam, are important values. And the United States is publicly ridiculing all that they hold dear.

The United States is in a diplomatic and economic bind. One of the only bipartisan issues, universally agreed upon in Washington, D.C., is the fight against oppression and the demand that countries that do business with the U.S. have their feet held to fire on issues of human rights.

Honestly, I don’t know if the president realized what he is up against on this self-heralded trip to the Middle East.

Israel wants the U.S. president to push to expand the Abraham Accords, to get more nations on board and to further interaction between Israel and other Arab nations in the region. And the Biden administration has been downplaying the Donald Trump-initiated Accords.

The Palestinians have been told that Biden is coming to help solve their issue and put their cause back on the front burner. If they believe that, they are in for serious disappointment.

Biden will either swing and miss or attempt a gesture which will be a setup for future disappointment to the Palestinians.

This trip looks like a setup for failure.