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Trump Has Opportunity to Broaden Support and Win Re-election, Polls Show

Trump Has Opportunity to Broaden Support and Win Re-election, Polls Show
U.S. President Donald Trump arrives for a campaign rally in Grand Rapids, Michigan on March 28, 2019. (Nicholas Kamm/AFP/Getty Images)

John McLaughlin By and Friday, 29 March 2019 10:33 AM EDT Current | Bio | Archive

Our most recent national poll of 1,000 likely voters was completed before the release of the Mueller Report, between March 20 and 24.

The results of this new national poll show that President Trump and the Republicans are poised to take advantage of the great opportunity afforded by the president’s vindication by the final release of the Mueller report.

Here are the most significant results:

— President Trump’s net job approval is already up net +6 percent since February to 49 percent approval among likely voters. Hispanic voters gave him a 50 percent approval rating.

— The plurality of all voters, 49 percent, want President Trump and Congress to change and move away from the old policies of President Obama. Only 41 percent want to continue Obama’s polices. Independent voters want change, 51 percent to 32 percent. 43 percent of all Hispanic voters want change and women want change, 47 percent to 41 percent. President Trump is getting the change message back that elected him in the first place. It’s a sign that he can reclaim his mandate and get re-elected.

— In contrast, Speaker Nancy Pelosi is disliked: 33 percent favorable, 54 percent unfavorable. Two thirds of independent voters, 63 percent, disapprove of the job Speaker Pelosi is doing and so do a quarter, 25 percent, of all Democrats.

— Even though our sample has more Democrats than Republicans in it, as did the actual 2016 turnout, our generic ballot for Congress, that correctly predicted a Democratic House majority, now has the Republicans leading the generic ballot for Congress, Republican 47 percent, Democrat 43 percent. Republicans lead among Independents 42 percent to 31 percent, too.

— The economic optimists still outnumber the pessimists. 51 percent say the economy is getting better. Only 40 percent say worse. In fact, 23 percent among those voters who disapprove of the job President Trump is doing, they say the economy is getting better.

— In spite of all the media hype for Socialism, the majority of voters, 51 percent, philosophically prefer a smaller federal government and only 30 percent want larger government. This includes 31 percent among all Democrats who want smaller government.

— President Trump wins among national Republican primary voters with 80 percent over John Kasich 5 percent and William Weld 1 percent. His base is solid and the primaries will be a fait accompli.

— Among National Democratic primary voters, Joe Biden leads Bernie Sanders with 28 percent to Sanders' 17 percent — followed by Hillary Clinton, Beto O’Rourke, and Kamala Harris, all at 8 percent, and Elizabeth Warren is at 5 percent. The rest of the field is in low single digits within the margin of error of the poll. The Democrats are clearly headed for a volatile and divisive primary with Sanders, Harris, and O’Rourke moving up among the dominant liberal wing of their party.

These trends are creating a huge opportunity for the president to broaden his popular support and strengthen his position for re-election.

First, the president’s upcoming campaign should look to broaden his base from the solid Republican majority to a decisive extra-partisan majority as Ronald Reagan created in the 1980s. The President can win among independents and position to attract disaffected Democrats.

Instead of contracting the electoral map, the Trump-Pence campaign should look to broaden the number of battleground states.

For those of us who were with Ronald Reagan in 1984 and with George H.W. Bush in 1988, the focus was on sweeping all 50 states. They came very close. Hey, if the Democrats nominate a socialist in the liberal tradition of McGovern, Mondale, and Dukakis, why not? President Trump won in 2016, precisely because he broadened the map and added the Rust Belt to the Sun Belt to create his Heartland majority. When compared to 2012, millions more voters came out for a record turnout. It’s time to expand that majority for another record.

Second, let’s expand the outreach of the Trump-Pence campaign.

Let’s not only reach out to the suburbs, but also to the Arthur Finkelstein defined peripheral urban ethnics. Let’s reach out to the legal voting immigrants and minorities who work, pay taxes, own homes and businesses. Just as President Trump did better among Hispanics and African Americans than Mitt Romney did, let’s do even better in 2020. Let’s retake the suburbs by winning college educated suburban woman.

How can President Trump do this? President Trump gave America his blueprint for re-election in his very successful State of the Union address. In our internal polls and the published media polls, among the 47 million voters who actually watched that speech, the vast majority of voters overwhelmingly approved of the policies in his very unifying speech.

So let’s take the very popular policies President Trump outlined in his State of the Union speech and go on the offense in Congress and force the Democrats to vote on these popular ideas. That will force every Democrat running for president to take a stand on these issues.

Let’s replace Obamacare with a consumer controlled, not government controlled, healthcare system which lowers premiums, protects Medicare, lowers the cost of prescription drugs, and covers pre-existing conditions.

Let’s advance President Trump’s initiatives to provide over $500 million over the next 10 years to fund lifesaving childhood cancer research and therapies. Also take up President Trump’s commitment to eliminate HIV in the United States in 10 years.

Congress should advance the president’s infrastructure plan to invest in roads, highways, bridges, tunnels, airports, and shipping ports. We’ll need this with the Reciprocal Trade Act that will ensure fair trade and creates jobs in America.

Now is the time to advance President Trump’s plan for nationwide paid family leave that gives parents 6 weeks of paid leave to care for their newborn children.

Everyone knows that the president wants a secure barrier on the southern border, but they need to know that he is advancing the humanitarian assistance, more law enforcement, drug detection at the ports, and closing loopholes that enable child smuggling.

President Trump’s determination and steadfast vision is paving the path to his re-election. The end of the Russian Collusion media myth has given the president the opportunity he needs.

John McLaughlin has worked professionally as a strategic consultant and pollster for over 35 years. During this time he has earned a reputation for helping some of America’s most successful corporations and winning some of the toughest elections in the nation. His political clients have included former Presidential candidates Steve Forbes and Fred Thompson, former California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, Georgia Governor Nathan Deal and 22 current and former U.S. Senators and 21 current Republican members of Congress. Last year John worked as an advisor and pollster for Donald Trump from the primaries through Election Day.

Jim McLaughlin is a nationally recognized public opinion expert, strategic consultant and political strategist who has helped to elect a U.S. President, Prime Ministers, a Senate Majority Leader, and a Speaker of the House. Jim has worked for over 70 members of Congress, 14 U.S. Senators, 10 governors, numerous mayors and scores of other elected officials. He also serves as a consultant and market research strategist to Fortune 500 companies. To read more of his reports — Click Here Now.

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President Trump’s determination and steadfast vision is paving the path to his re-election. The end of the Russian Collusion media myth has given the president the opportunity he needs.
trump, polling, trends, mueller, support, approval rating
Friday, 29 March 2019 10:33 AM
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