Washington, D.C. — The Serbs have made the Balkans rumble again.
Their grievances are local but their actions are in tune with the needs of the Russians looming menacingly over Ukraine.
Virtually all Serbs look up to Russia for succor and sustenance. And the Russians oblige.
This has been a historical friendship. Serbia can count on Russia today as well.
When energy prices go up, Serb leaders simply travel to Moscow for a sympathetic hearing and a preferential treatment. But it comes for a price: obedience to the Kremlin.
For many Serbs the price seems fair.
No wonder then, as a recent survey shows, that 77% of Serbs admire Putin or at least have a positive opinion about him, while only 15% don’t care for him.
The Poles stand at the opposite end: 82% have expressed a negative opinion of the master of the Kremlin and only 10% like him. In the Intermarium, the lands between the Baltic, Black, and Adriatic seas, only the Balts come close to the Poles in detesting the Russian leader.
As far as others there, Putin clocks mostly on the negative side with the Czechs (70%), Austrians (69%), and Rumanians (68%). Tellingly, the Magyars lead the ambivalent batch (only 36% negative) followed by the Croats (42%), and Slovenes (53%).
The Bulgars (60% positive), Northern Macedonia (55%), Montenegrins (57%), and Slovaks (57%) are as close as it gets to the Serb Putinophiles.
Parenthetically, one’s attitude towards the United States is a converse indicator of affinities and antipathies. The Polish tend to love America the best; the Serbs loathe us the most out of all folks of the Intermarium.
The same applies to the region’s approach to NATO. More negative a nation tends to be toward Russia, the more enthusiastic it is about NATO aka America.
True to its increasingly ambivalent stance, stemming from Hungary’s stringently pursuing its own path, Budapest has just declined more NATO troops on its territory in conjunction with the Ukrainian crisis. In fact, the Magyars would like to take advantage of Kiyv’s sorry predicament by securing lower energy prices from Moscow at the cost of remaining neutral like Germany.
Slovakia’s parliamentary debate over Ukraine and NATO turned nasty. The motion in support of the defense cooperation with the US carried the day but the opposition hailed Putin and accused the ruling coalition of "treason."
That would be standard among the Serbs, albeit such are their majority sentiments.
When I say "the Serbs," I do not mean just the denizens of the Republic of Serbia, where they are in an overwhelming majority. I also include ethnic Serbs of the rest of former Yugoslavia.
In particular, this concerns the Republika Srpska, which confusingly also translates as “the Serb Republic,” but is a triplet part of Bosnia-Herzegovina (B-H). The other two are the Federation of Bosnia-Herzegovina and a tiny autonomous Brčko District, which, while de facto overseen by B-H, remains de jure under international supervision.
At any rate, the Orthodox Serbs are a majority in parts of Bosnia-Herzegovina, a majority large enough to warrant its own administrative entity. But they exist amidst Catholic Croats, Muslim Bosniaks, and others. Even the last war’s ethnic cleansing failed to sort out the mish mash of populations.
What unites the Serbs everywhere is the rejection of the verdict of the last war (including war guilt) and their positive attitude toward the Russian Federation.
Arguably, the two most incendiary spots in Western Balkans are Serb enclaves in Kosovo, now an independent country, and the Republika Srpska, an increasingly restive federative triplet in Bosnia-Herzegovina.
The parliament of the Republika Srpska has recently voted to create its own armed forces. B-H has an army, combining the triplets and all ethnicities, but the local Serbs would like to have a separate military of their own.
While at it, they also voted for an autonomous judiciary, tax, and customs system. This stands in violation of peace accords ending the last Balkan wars.
The Serb move spells a de facto separation because it is highly unlikely that the Senate of Bosnia-Herzegovina, where the Serbs are a minority, will rubber stamp the new law. The state Senate overrides all triplet laws.
If the Serb leaders ignore this, will there be war?
There is already an uptick of physical "confrontations" or "hate incidents destabilizing Bosnia." Some worry that Moscow endeavors to turn "the Balkans into another Ukraine."
And what will President Joseph R. Biden do?
Marek Jan Chodakiewicz is Professor of History at the Institute of World Politics, a graduate school of statecraft in Washington D.C.; expert on East-Central Europe's Three Seas region; author, among others, of "Intermarium: The Land Between The Baltic and Black Seas." Read Marek Jan Chodakiewicz's Reports — More Here.
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