Rep. Capps' Exit May Let GOP Pick Up California Seat in 2016

No sooner had Rep. Lois Capps, D-Calif., announced her retirement Wednesday than Republicans from Santa Barbara to Washington, D.C., began talking eagerly about picking up her coastal (San Luis Obispo-Santa Barbara) 24th District seat in 2016.

For most of her trips to the polls after she won a special election in 1998 to succeed her late husband, two-term Rep. Walter Capps, the liberal Democratic congresswoman has had little difficulty.

But in 2012, after redistricting that made Capps’ district less securely Democratic, she won an unusually close race (55 percent to 45 percent) against liberal Republican and former Lt. Gov. Abel Maldonado.

Last fall, conservative Republican Chris Mitchum drew a stunning 48.4 percent of the vote, losing to Capps by less than 6,500 votes in her closest-ever brush with defeat.

"The National Republican Congressional Committee did not target Chris at all," Jon Fleischman, editor of the much-read Flash Report online political newsletter, told Newsmax, noting that the producer and son of screen legend Robert Mitchum raised only $500,000 to Capps' $2 million.

"[The NRCC] were asleep at the switch on this one," Fleischman added.

Mitchum is expected to make another run for the now-open seat. Moreover, state Assemblyman Katcho Achadjian of San Luis Obispo told Politico that he was "definitely considering" a bid for Congress.

"Katcho is a Republican in the mold of [liberal GOP former Gov. Arnold] Schwarzenegger," Fleischman told Newsmax. "Sure, he'll vote for a Republican for speaker, but after that, he'll certainly cast every vote on a case-by-case basis."

Within hours of Capps' retirement statement, fellow liberal Democrat and Santa Barbara Mayor Helene Schneider declared for Congress. In praising Capps, Schneider vowed to campaign on an agenda of "advancing more progressive environmental protection policies, investing in our infrastructure and education."

An intriguing Democratic prospect would be Laura Capps, daughter of the congresswoman and a former Clinton White House staffer. Were Laura Capps to run and win, it would be the second time in two election cycles that a House seat was held by three family members in a row. (The other historical succession was in Michigan's 12th District, where last year Deborah Dingell succeeded husband and 60-year Rep. John Dingell, who succeed his father John Sr. in the seat after the elder Dingell's death in 1954.)

Other Democrats mentioned include Santa Barbara County Supervisor Salud Carbajal and state Assemblyman Das Williams. Both are considered from the far left of their party, in the mold of Schneider and Lois Capps.

Under California’s French-style voting system, all candidates compete on the same ballot in the primary and the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, then compete in a November runoff.

John Gizzi is chief political columnist and White House correspondent for Newsmax.