A recent and much-discussed feature in the 182-year-old Economist magazine estimated that Democrats are "heavy favorites" to capture control of the U.S. House of Representatives this fall.
But the same Economist study noted that control may well come down to what it estimates are 11 races that it considers "uncertain."
One such district is Michigan's 10th District (Macomb and Oakland Counties), which two-term Rep. John James is relinquishing to seek the Republican nomination for governor.
No less than eight candidates are vying for the GOP nomination in the Aug. 4 primary. Three want the Democrat nod.
Privately, several Republicans told Newsmax that the GOP contest is down to two "heavyweight contenders:" Michael Bouchard, 31, Army veteran and namesake of the longtime sheriff of Oakland County, and Robert Lulgjuraj, 32, former assistant Macomb County prosecutor and grandson of Albanian immigrants.
Bouchard and Lulgjuraj both consider themselves strong "Trump Republicans" and differences between them have more to do with geography and background.
Bouchard, who inarguably resounds throughout the district given his father's history of 35 years in elective office and past statewide bids for U.S. senator and governor, is a strong favorite to sweep Oakland County. He is also the lone veteran running in the primary.
But Macomb comprises over 80% of the district and that is where Lulgjuraj is from. Moreover, there is also a strong concentration of Albanian-Americans in Macomb County and they have helped make Lulgjuraj the top fundraiser among Republicans – $1,217,000 raised so far, compared with Bouchard's $977,000.
Among Democrats, the strong favorite is Christina Hines, who lost a strong bid for Macomb County prosecutor in 2024 and has the backing of the leftist EMILYs List as well as popular former Macomb County prosecutor Carl Marlinga. A former special victims prosecutor, Hines characterizes herself as a "Mom on a mission" and could benefit from lingering bad blood if the GOP primary grows incendiary.
James beat Democrat Marlinga by less than 2,000 votes in 2022 and by about 26,000 votes in '24. Without knowing the outcome of the August primaries, the best one can say about the contest to succeed James is it is truly anyone's game.
John Gizzi is chief political columnist and White House correspondent for Newsmax. For more of his reports, Click Here Now.
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