California pols and pundits were speechless Friday evening as Republican Reps. Darrell Issa and Kevin Kiley announced sudden and never-anticipated changes in their political plans — Issa reversing plans to seek reelection in his San Diego-based 48th District, and Kiley declaring he would run as an independent in the new 6th District.
"This is the fallout of the gerrymandering wars," said Dan Schnur, a onetime top aide to former Republican Gov. Pete Wilson, referring to the U.S. House map drawn by legislative Democrats that will reduce the Golden State's House GOP delegation to four out of 50 seats.
"If the old districts were in place," Schnur added, "Issa would be running for reelection and Kiley would still be a Republican."
Jon Fleischman, editor of the much-read FlashReport on California politics, told Newsmax that "[i]t would appear after serious thought Darrell did not want to go through the wringers of a very hard-fought reelection campaign. You can't blame him – politics is a tough sport."
As for Kiley, Fleischman said "Kevin Kiley is always full of surprises, but this one no one expected. There's not a big track record of independents winning elections to Congress. This is a seat that was drawn to elect the Democrat and it will take all of Kiley's efforts to win it. And it will take national Republican money helping him even though he is not in the GOP any longer."
Issa, 72, announced he would not seek reelection in the 48th District (San Diego). The multimillionaire car-alarm magnate said in a statement that "after a quarter-century in Congress — and before that, a quarter-century in business — it's the right time for a new chapter and new challenges."
His decision represents a near-complete turnaround from what he told Newsmax two months ago: "So I am staying in Congress from the 48th District for the people who will get better treatment from Washington than if I leave," suggesting that a senior Republican who has a relationship with the Trump administration would be an asset rather than just one Democrat out of many from California.
In announcing his exodus, Issa gave his strong endorsement to fellow conservative and San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond. But with the new district lines transforming the 48th from one that gave Donald Trump a double-digit lead to one carried by Kamala Harris, the GOP faces an uphill battle to retain it.
Kiley, 41, stunned observers on all sides by announcing he would seek reelection as an independent in the 6th District rather than in his present 3rd District.
"It is no secret I've been frustrated, at times disgusted, by the hyper-partisanship in Congress," Kiley wrote online. "In the last year it's led to the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, a massive increase in health care costs, and of course, a pointless redistricting war."
In the last year, Kiley has denounced both parties for gerrymandering House districts in different states and also broken with his party by offering legislation to extend subsidies for the Affordable Care Act. He has also been critical of House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La.
In Dan Schnur's words, "Republicans are retiring because they don't want to be in the minority. Democrats are retiring because they don't want to deal with Trump. Congress is a very unhappy place to be right now — for everyone."
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