Senior US Officials: Putin Has Changed, Is Isolated and More Difficult to Predict

It stands to reason that, in confronting the complex of crises created by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, it would be an advantage for the United States that so many members of the Biden administration's foreign policy team, from the president on down, have direct experience meeting with Vladimir Putin.

In fact, the senior U.S. officials who have had face time with the Russian president, as well as former officials, say uniformly that they see him as a profoundly changed, more isolated figure, with their firsthand dealings now of only limited value in assessing Putin's wartime conduct and short-term decision-making.

Case in point: During the March 28 news conference in the State Dining Room in which President Joe Biden defended his ad-libbed comment in Poland — "For God's sake, this man cannot remain in power" — Biden recounted a previously unreported detail from his first summit with President Putin as heads of state, held in Geneva in June 2021, that spoke to the Russian leader's shift in thinking.

"He said, 'I have two objectives,'" the president recalled. "'One is to make sure that they [the Ukrainians] never become part of NATO. And two, to make sure there are no long-range missiles in there — in Ukraine.' I said, 'We can deal with the second one easily, but we can't close the door on the first. Because when we talk about missiles, we want to talk about what's also on the Russian border heading towards Europe. Do both.' And then, if you noticed, that demand list of his — not with me, with others — have [sic] escalated significantly in terms of what he thinks is necessary."

The growth of Putin's "demand list" is not the only change in his conduct observed by U.S. officials, however.

Few if any Americans alive today have conducted more direct talks with Putin than CIA Director William J. Burns. The highest-ranking career Foreign Service officer in U.S. history, Burns served as U.S. ambassador to Russia from 2005-08, during the final years of the George W. Bush administration; then as under secretary of state for political affairs, the third-highest official in the State Department, from 2008 to 2011; then as deputy secretary, the number-two official, under Hillary Clinton.

Associated Press photographs over the years captured Burns presenting his diplomatic credentials to a noticeably younger Putin almost 17 years ago, and numerous other encounters thereafter.

Burns' 2019 autobiography, "The Back Channel: A Memoir of American Diplomacy and the Case for Its Renewal," reviewed favorably by this reporter in National Review, recounted wild tales of Burns' private talks with Putin, including a thinly-veiled threat to disrupt American elections the Russian leader issued to Burns years before Clinton and Donald Trump squared off.

Today, however, in congressional testimony as the head of the world's premier spy agency, Burns has observed that Putin has "created a system in which his own circle of advisors is narrower and narrower. COVID has made that even narrower."

This change in Putin's decision-making process makes sound assessments of his intentions more difficult for American analysts and policymakers.

"And it's a system," Burns added, "in which it's not proven career-enhancing for people to question or challenge his judgment."

Barack Obama, of course, is not a member of the Biden-Harris administration, but White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki told reporters this week, ahead of Mr. Obama's first return visit to the White House on Tuesday, that he and the incumbent president speak frequently on matters personal and professional.

Speaking at an event in Chicago convened on Wednesday by the University of Chicago Institute for Politics and The Atlantic, the former president said he isn't sure that the Vladimir Putin he got to know across eight years of power in the White House is the same man "leading this charge" in Ukraine today.

"There's been a lot of literature about this, a lot of reporting about this," Mr. Obama said. "He was always ruthless. You witnessed what he did in Chechnya. He had no qualms about crushing those who he considered a threat; that's not new. For him to bet the farm in this way, I'm not — I would not have necessarily predicted from him five years ago."