UK's Conservative Party Rudderless Without Johnson

Once again, the United Kingdom finds itself in an all-too familiar situation. Its head of government, now-former Prime Minister Liz Truss, is out the door after less than two months on the job.

This, after a long and contentious leadership contest, where Truss bested Rishi Sunak, a former Chancellor of the Exchequer, for the top job. Many in the British media compared Truss’ ascendency to that of Margaret Thatcher, in part because her economic agenda mirrored that of the Iron Lady’s.

As a candidate for prime minister, Truss vowed to slash taxes and cut regulations. Mark Littlewood, head of the Institute for Economic Affairs, a free market think tank, called Truss a “’radical,’ who — like Thatcher — wants to roll back the intervention of the state in people’s lives.”

But all of the laudatory expectations came to a crashing halt last week, as Truss announced that she would be stepping down from office after only 45 days. Instead of building on Thatcher’s legacy, Truss now holds the record as the shortest-served prime minister in British history.

Truss’ precipitous downfall has left her party, the Conservatives, in dire straits. The latest polls have the Conservatives getting beat by a whopping 39 points to the Labor Party.

Unless there’s a major change in direction, the Conservatives risk not only losing their majority in the House of Commons, but their status as the official opposition. Forecasts suggest that the Scottish National Party (SNP) would win more seats in Westminster than the Conservatives, despite only putting forward candidates in Scotland!

Enter Boris Johnson into the equation. With a Conservative government likely remaining in power for the next two years and facing issues ranging from economic uncertainty to a possible second referendum on Scottish independence, the Conservatives needed Johnson in Number 10.

To date, he remains the only member of Parliament with an actual mandate to govern. In 2019, Johnson led the Conservatives to an unprecedented victory, winning 365 seats, the highest number and proportion of seats since Thatcher’s last win in 1987.

Add to this the fact that he was able to enhance the Conservative majority in places where the party had historically favored poorly. This includes constituencies in the Midlands and Northern England that normally backed Labor.

In the 2019 election, Labor lost nearly 20% of their prior election support in so-called “red wall” seats, with constituencies like Don Valley and Leigh voting for Conservative candidates for the first time since 1922.

Even though Johnson grew up in what most would consider privileged circumstances, he was able to connect with working class voters in a way Conservative leaders hadn’t been able to in the past, and likely won’t without his leadership.

A survey taken after the election showed that Johnson actually lowered the average age of Conservative voters from 47 to 39, in part by bringing unskilled workers and pensioners into the Tory camp.

For many of these first-time Conservative voters, Johnson was viewed as the only leader capable of delivering Brexit, finishing the job that his predecessor, Theresa May, couldn’t. After nearly three years of failing to take Britain out of the European Union, Johnson ultimately got the job done, fulfilling one of his key campaign pledges.

Johnson also remains to date the only Conservative elected as mayor of London, securing two terms in a city that hasn’t in recent history favored his party or its candidates. These wins proved that Johnson could connect with voters in all parts of the country, not just traditional Conservative strongholds.

Johnson also remains popular among rank and file members of the Conservative Party, polling better than both Truss and Sunak, now the successor to Truss. As a Conservative MP noted, Johnson remains “the off-the-shelf solution for lots of people.”

While Sunak and Penny Mordaunt, current Leader of the House of Commons, are credible leaders in their own right, there is zero evidence to suggest that either has the power to connect with voters across the spectrum on the scale that Johnson has.

Neither has led their party to victory in a general election, thus lacking a clear mandate from voters.

Johnson had a long journey ahead of him to gain back the trust of voters due to his egregious actions during the COVID-19 pandemic. But that doesn’t mean he couldn’t have won those same voters back. Time and time again, Johnson defied the odds and came back from political oblivion.

Johnson ended his premiership in the House of Commons with the line, “Hasta la vista baby.” With his return to Number 10 now out of question, that line might be best saved for the Conservative Party in the next general election.