President Barack Obama's changing policy on Cuba trades off a firm stance for a vague plan, according to a
Washington Post opinion piece, as the embargo put Cuba on notice that the United States would have nothing to do with Cuba and its many misdeeds.
The embargo, which has been in place in since the early 1960s, "may be a futile gesture, " writes Post editorial writer Charles Lane, but "it is, or was, not an empty gesture."
The embargo "put the United States firmly on record as a country that would not have dealings with another that invited in Soviet nuclear weapons, sponsored violent guerrilla groups, harbored fugitives and was guilty of systematically trampling its citizens' most basic rights."
While Obama's plan to restore relations with the communist nation is more "nuanced morally," Lane said he is skeptical that the Obama administration or further successors will have the "diplomatic smarts" to push Cuban President Raul Castro and his own successors into allowing more freedoms for Cubans.
Havana has "more of a plan" than Washington, while facing economic difficulty from not receiving subsidies from Venezuela, which is hurting financially thanks to dropping oil prices.
Further, Castro plans to keep himself and the Cuban communist government in power, and will likely continue to keep total control over the country's economy and political system.
Obama's measures will bring hard cash to the island, says Lane, and further his announcement gave the Castro regime a "huge propaganda victory."
And while the negotiations helped secure the release of prisoner Alan Gross, they mean "no verifiable, irreversible democratic reform on Cuba’s part."
Instead, said Lane: "Obama came dangerously close to endorsing the argument by Raúl Castro and his brother, Fidel, that there’s a binary choice between the status quo and chaos."
Further, Obama's reforms are vague and make no demands for free elections, but instead for Cubans to "participate in the political process," which the Castros say the island's citizens already have.
Obama also said his plan will empower Cuba to become more open and democratic and receive more money from their stateside relatives and more contact with travelers and businesses.
"Raúl Castro can live with that," said Lane. "He knows that when the hoopla over this week’s big policy move is over, when Obama has finished collecting kudos from foreign policy mavens who have been clamoring for a more rational U.S.-Cuba policy, Obama and most of the rest of official Washington will move on to other things."
And meanwhile, Castro and the Cuban military keeps firm control over the country and the things that will determine how Cubans and Americans interact, said Lane.
Castro will also deal with "second-tier" diplomats while a Cuban lobby will come to Washington to explain why pushing for reform won't work.
"If this scenario sounds familiar, it’s because it has already worked for China and Vietnam, with which the United States once made war but now does business," said Lane.
Sandy Fitzgerald ✉
Sandy Fitzgerald has more than three decades in journalism and serves as a general assignment writer for Newsmax covering news, media, and politics.
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