Societal Changes Underway in Iran,
Some Argue We Must Not 'Return to Factory Settings'
In recent political discourse in Iran, phrases like "the regime has returned to factory settings" or "we must not return to factory settings" are being frequently used by political activists and officials.
But what does this metaphor really mean?
And why are some analysts warning that if Iran's political system fails to align itself with ongoing social transformations — in intellectual, security, judicial, and executive dimensions — it may struggle to navigate the Iranian year 1405 (beginning March 21, 2026)?
A senior official of the Islamic Republic recently acknowledged societal changes underway, emphasizing that the center of power is gradually shifting from the state toward society.
Abbas Abdi, a prominent figure among reformists, has also issued a warning, "If the current trajectory does not change, we may not easily reach the year 1405."
He predicted the possibility of events occurring beyond the regime's control and added that even if the country enters that year, making it through in one piece is unlikely under the current circumstances.
For the first time, officials of the Islamic Republic have openly referred to the existence of "resistance units."
Security forces, with heavy media coverage, announced the arrest of a resistance unit allegedly responsible for setting religious seminaries on fire.
The supreme leader had previously referred to such groups as "dormant cells linked to foreign powers."
Meanwhile, younger generations — especially Generations Z and Y, who have grown up immersed in the internet and social media — are increasingly joining thousands of dispersed resistance units across Iran.
These units are affiliated with the People's Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK), a group whose core slogans include the separation of religion and state and gender equality.
These developments reflect a profound structural shift within Iranian society.
In response, the regime has turned to executions as a means of instilling fear and preserving its grip on power.
In November alone, 335 executions were reported — a stark indicator of the regime's fear of escalating social unrest.
Economic Collapse and Governance Crisis
Iran's economy has experienced negative growth this year.
The government has failed to halt the collapse of its national currency, rein in inflation, or ensure the provision of basic goods.
Simultaneously, a wave of impeachments has shaken the cabinet of President Masoud Pezeshkian. Rather than focusing on the population's economic concerns, parliament has been consumed by political infighting and repeated ministerial impeachments.
A regime that lacks popular legitimacy, operates solely on the will of an autocrat and is plagued by systemic corruption, is fundamentally incapable of managing crises.
As public trust continues to erode, many Iranians have turned to buying gold to safeguard their savings.
Resignation or Repression?
In response to these growing crises, the regime appears to be moving further toward its "factory settings": maximum securitization, intensified cultural repression, strict enforcement of compulsory hijab, and greater restrictions on social freedoms — especially for women.
At the same time, rumors have emerged about a possible resignation by President Pezeshkian. His executive deputy, Mohammad Jafar Ghaempanah, responded by saying, "Some suggest the president should resign, but if that happens, what will become of Iran?"
Some analysts interpret these remarks as a sign of the regime's anxiety over the risk of collapse.
Repression Beyond Borders
International pressure on the Islamic Republic is also mounting.
A judge who has, for over a year, been conducting in absentia trials of 104 members of the MEK and the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) — most of whom living in exile in Europe for decades — recently condemned the invitation of Maryam Rajavi, the NCRI's president-elect for the transitional period, to the European Parliament.
According to the judge, this invitation highlights the European Union’s double standards on terrorism.
Despite knowing that the Iranian regime is often described as the "world number one sponsor of state-terrorism," the judge, echoing the rhetoric of the Vichy government, of the mid-last century, which once labeled the French Resistance as terrorists, calls on European countries to deny the Iranian resistance any platform and to extradite them to Tehran.
This is happening even as numerous intelligence reports from European countries have expressed growing concern about Tehran's terror plots targeting Iranian dissidents or dual nationals on European soil.
A Global Shift in Perspective Toward Tehran
In line with this, a recent report by the UK Parliament has assessed the Islamic Republic's destabilizing activities and labeled Iran "an active, persistent, and growing threat" to domestic British security.
This official assessment marks a significant shift in London's — and possibly Europe's — stance toward the Islamic Republic, signaling an end to the era of optimism based on engagement and appeasement.
(A related story may be found here.)
Hamid Enayat (@h_enayat) is an expert on Iran and a writer based in Paris, where he has written frequently on Iranian and regional issues in the past 30 years. Read more of his reports — Here.
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