The mainstream media portends to know what the issues will be in the upcoming midterm elections. While most prognostications involve various domestic topics or policy matters such as immigration and healthcare, one item is being virtually ignored. It could be single most important factor in November: who turns out to vote.
In a new and shocking Rasmussen Poll, President Trump’s approval rating among African-Americans is at 36 percent, nearly double his support last year. That number alone could be big trouble for the Democrats as well as the party’s future.
The approval rating becomes even more astonishing when you consider Trump got a mere 8 percent of the African-American vote in the 2016 presidential election. Many in the black community have taken notice of the record low black unemployment and Trump campaign slogan urging them to vote for him: “What do you have to lose?”
The recent polling numbers are particularly interesting considering the bad press Trump has received regarding his former White House aide, Omarosa Manigault Newman, who alleged Trump used a racial slur while filming the reality TV series “The Apprentice.”
But numbers do not lie and if the Rasmussen Poll is an indicator of a major shift in one of the key areas of the Democratic Party base, it could change the dynamics of the midterm elections in a major way.
Charlie Kirk, the founder of the conservative campus group Turning Point USA, decried the poll as proof Trump “is breaking the Democrat Party as we know it."
Could that be true? The Democrats have virtually owned the black vote for decades portraying themselves as the party that champions the underdog. Most big city mayors are either African-American or far-left liberals. But Trump’s challenge of “What have you got to lose?” may be resonating with many minorities who have seen little change in urban unemployment and poorly-run school systems for generations.
The Rasmussen Poll is a disaster for Democratic strategists who have come to rely heavily on their huge majorities among the less fortunate in our society. The party’s base is being fractured as the economy and unemployment reach record highs and lows. That has helped all Americans including the very base of the Democratic Party.
The Rasmussen Poll is much higher in its percentages than the NAACP or Pew Research Polls, but nevertheless, all polls show the president’s approval rating far higher than the last best indicator of 12 percent for Republican presidential candidate Bob Dole in 1996.
Should this trend continue, history may show that Kayne West led the way. He was the first to point out startling facts for the black community. African-American unemployment is the lowest ever recorded in this country.
West’s “support” emboldened the president to point out West’s remarks last May to a boisterous National Rifle Association convention. Shortly after West had publicly cited the unemployment figures, a Reuters poll showed the president’s approval rating among African-Americans rose from 11 to 22 percent in one week.
Midterm elections generally mean the political party out of power will gain seats in Congress. But if a major part of the Democratic Party’s base of support begins to have doubts, it could be a true game changer for the party itself going forward.
Dwight L. Schwab, Jr. is an award-winning national political and foreign affairs columnist and published author. He has spent over 35 years in the publishing industry. His long-running articles include many years at Examiner.com and currently Newsblaze.com. Dwight is an author of two highly acclaimed books, "Redistribution of Common Sense - Selected Commentaries on the Obama Administration 2009-2014" and "The Game Changer - America's Most Stunning Election in History." He is a native of Portland, Oregon, a journalism graduate from the University of Oregon, and a resident of the SF Bay Area. To read more of his reports — Click Here Now.
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