Tags: rasmussen | obama | polls | election

Polls Look Grim for Democrats in November

By Wednesday, 08 October 2014 09:07 AM Current | Bio | Archive

History tells us that the party of the second term president in midterm elections does not fair very well. It is indisputable that midterm elections are all about voter turnout. Each party must turn out its base in large numbers and augment that with independents to win.

NPR’s bipartisan battleground poll of independents shows the following results with regard to Obama’s policies, which is clear warning signs for Democrats:

Overall Job: 29/67 (-38)
Right Track/Wrong Track: 17/79 (-62)
Obamacare: 34/64 (-13)
ISIS: 42/52 (-10)

CNN’s poll adds fuel to the fire by reporting that President Obama’s polices are also unpopular with all likely voters:

Overall Job: 44/52 (-8)
Economy: 42/56 (-14)
Foreign Affairs: 42/54 (-12)
Terrorism: 46/50 (-4)
Health Care: 42/56 (-14)
ISIS: 45/49 (-4)

Today, if it were not for bad news, Obama doesn’t make news. Take Obamacare: It is still unpopular with a high percentage of Americans. Rasmussen is reporting that voters are not sold on Obamacare’s individual mandate. The poll finds 48 percent of likely U.S. voters oppose the new healthcare law’s requirement that every American buy or obtain insurance.

It also finds that percent disagree and believe the government should require Americans to have health insurance. Eleven percent is undecided.

This year’s midterm election is all about the U.S. Senate. Republicans need to pick up six seats to take the majority and the odds are in their favor. Democrats are defending 16 seats while Republicans are defending just four.

Democrats however have to defend seats in the deep red states of Arkansas, West Virginia, Alaska, Montana and South Dakota — all which have Obama approval ratings well below the national average. Real Clear Politics is reporting that 10 seats are “toss-ups” and of those seven are Democrats and three Republican.

Here are the states that matter in the Senate showdown and all are considered “toss-ups.”
  • Alaska-D: Incumbent Mark Begich is facing Republican Ex-Natural Resources Commissioner Dan Sullivan. POTUS Approval: 35 percent.
  • Arkansas-D: Incumbent Mark Pryor is facing Congressman Tom Cotton. POTUS Approval: 35 percent.
  • Colorado-D: Incumbent Mark Udall is facing Congressman Cory Gardner. POTUS Approval: 42 percent.
  • Georgia-R: Open seat. Democrat nonprofit executive Michelle Nunn faces Republican businessman David Perdue. POTUS Approval: 45 percent.
  • Iowa-D: Open Seat. Democrat Congressman Bruce Braley faces Republican State Senator Joni Ernst. POTUS Approval: 42 percent.
  • Kansas-R: Incumbent Pat Roberts faces independent businessman Greg Orman, Democrat Shawnee County DA Chad Taylor withdrew. POTUS Approval: 32 percent.
  • Kentucky-R: Incumbent Majority Leader Mitch McConnell faces Democrat Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes. POTUS Approval: 35 percent.
  • Louisiana-D: Incumbent Mary Landrieu faces Republican Congressman Bill Cassidy. POTUS Approval: 40 percent.
  • New Hampshire-D: Incumbent Jeanne Shaheen faces Republican former U.S. senator from Massachusetts Scott Brown. POTUS Approval: 45 percent.
  • N. Carolina-D: Incumbent Kay Hagan faces Republican State House Speaker Thom Tillis. POTUS Approval: 43 percent.
As of today, President Obama’s national job approval rating: 43.3 percent. Disapprove: 52.8 percent.

In the past 10 years, just nine senators of the president's party have won elections in states where presidential approval slips below the national average, according to a review of exit polls and election results since 2004.

If this was not bad enough for Democrats, add the facts that 64.6 percent of Americans believe that America is not on the right direction and the generic congressional ballot favors Republicans: 45.5 percent to 43.3 percent.

True, Democrats in 2014 are “outnumbered” by telltale polls and history.

But, that is not enough for Republicans to win and for Democrats to lose the Senate.

Republicans need an effective ground game. They must turn our their base and add to it with independents. If people are disgruntled but stay home, Republicans can’t take back the Senate. All the numbers are there. It is now up to them to make them work to their favor.

Bradley A. Blakeman served as deputy assistant to President George W. Bush from 2001-04. He is currently a professor of politics and public policy at Georgetown University and a frequent contributor to Fox News Opinion. Read more reports from Bradley Blakeman — Click Here Now.

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Today, if it were not for bad news, Obama doesn’t make news.
rasmussen, obama, polls, election
Wednesday, 08 October 2014 09:07 AM
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