Cook Political Report: Democratic 'Maelstrom' May Give GOP 60 House Seats

Republicans are positioned to gain as many as 60 seats, possibly more, from a Democratic Party that seems in free fall just one week from Election Day, according to the Cook Political Report.

The report's pre-election House outlook is a Democratic net loss of 48 to 60 seats, with higher losses possible. Though a turnover of just 39 seats would tip majority status into Republican hands, according to the Report, “the midterm maelstrom pulling House Democrats under shows no signs of abating, if anything it has intensified.”

The report points out that, although only a third of Democratic Senate seats are up for election, House Democrats are suffering the full extent of the anger over growing unemployment, huge federal deficits and controversial spending programs like the economic stimulus and Obamacare.

More than 25 percent of the 255-member House Democratic caucus are trailing their GOP opponents in at least one public or private survey. Worse yet for the Democrats — nearly half have tested under 50 percent of the vote in at least one poll. NBC News, using the report’s research, recently suggested that as many as 100 Democratic seats are in play.

But only 190 House seats are “Solid, Likely or Lean Democratic,” according to the Report. Another 198 seats are “Solid, Likely or Lean Republican.” Nearly 50 seats are in the tossup column.

“While there are certain to be at least 43 new members of the House thanks to 41 open seats and two vacancies, between 40 and 50 incumbents (over 95 percent of them Democrats) are likely to lose their seats, making for possibly the largest freshman class since 1992,” the Report stated Tuesday evening.

Other respected political analysts are coming to similar conclusions.
RealClearPolitics now projects 149 seats are in play, with just 123 “safe” Democratic wins and 163 “safe” Republican wins. Adding up the totals and including “leaning” or “likely”GOP wins, the GOP should take the house with at least 223 seats. With tossups, the number of GOP seats in the next Congress would likely be around 244 seats.

The New York Times’ FiveThirtyEight blog, meanwhile, currently predicts that 230 seats will end up in GOP hands, compared with 205 for the Democrats.