In the wake of sweeping U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran and the dramatic capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, allies of President Donald Trump say the administration is preparing for its next major foreign-policy target: Cuba.
Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., declared over the weekend that "Cuba's next," arguing that the island's communist government is on the brink of collapse.
"This communist dictatorship in Cuba? Their days are numbered," he said, praising Trump's foreign policy as surpassing even that of former President Ronald Reagan.
Inside the administration, officials are casting the moment as a historic opportunity to achieve what 12 presidents before Trump failed to accomplish: ending the 67-year-old communist regime founded by former Cuban leader Fidel Castro.
Trump himself has fueled speculation.
Speaking outside the White House last week, Trump said Secretary of State Marco Rubio was engaged in high-level talks with Cuban leaders and floated the possibility of a "friendly takeover of Cuba."
"The Cuban government is talking with us," Trump said.
"They have no money. They have no anything right now."
"But they're talking to us, and maybe we'll have a friendly takeover," he added.
Administration officials describe a dual-track strategy: intensifying economic pressure while holding open the door to negotiations that would allow American businesses into the Cuban market in exchange for political reforms.
According to reports cited by Axios and echoed in columns in The Atlantic, Rubio has been involved in quiet discussions with members of the Castro family.
Rather than negotiating directly with Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel, Rubio is said to be reaching out to figures close to Raul Castro, including his grandson, Raul Guillermo Rodriguez Castro.
For Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants who rose to prominence in Florida politics championing anti-Castro causes, the negotiations carry deep personal resonance.
One source close to the State Department told Newsmax that Rubio is in search of a "Delcy Rodriguez" — referring to Venezuela's acting president who is working with the U.S. to ensure a smooth transition to democratic elections.
For the moment, the administration's strategy relies heavily on Cuba's dire economic condition.
After the U.S. takeover of Venezuela's oil industry in January, shipments of subsidized Venezuelan crude to Cuba — long a lifeline for the island — were cut off.
A subsequent executive order threatened tariffs on countries that supply oil to Havana, squeezing alternative sources.
The result has been cascading blackouts, shuttered factories, food shortages, and hospital disruptions.
Airlines from Canada and Russia have reportedly suspended flights due to jet fuel shortages, further crippling tourism — one of Cuba's few sources of foreign currency.
Trump recently labeled Cuba "an unusual and extraordinary threat," though he did not elaborate on the claim.
Critics note that Russia, China, and Iran are not currently positioning missiles in Havana, and Cuba's military equipment largely dates to the Soviet era.
Still, administration officials argue that economic collapse could trigger either internal reform or a negotiated transition.
"I think it's just going to fall," Trump said when asked whether military action was imminent. "Looks like it's going down for the count."
On the ground in Cuba, anxiety is mounting.
Following the U.S. strikes in Venezuela and Iran, Cuban counterintelligence agents have reportedly visited neighborhoods near military sites in Havana, gathering names and preparing evacuation contingencies.
Independent outlet 14ymedio has reported nighttime military patrols, while Diaz-Canel has increased exercises despite Cuba's aging arsenal.
The recent killing of Iran's supreme leader has intensified fears in Havana that the U.S. might pursue decapitation-style regime change.
More than 2 million Cubans have left the island in the past five years.
Those who remain face daily power outages, scarce gasoline, and rising food prices. "The only thing they have there is hunger," one Havana resident said of a nearby military installation.
Yet public opinion appears divided.
Some religious and civic leaders urge a negotiated settlement to prevent civilian casualties. Others openly say that U.S. intervention may be the only path to ending decades of repression.
Cuba has long occupied an outsized place in the American imagination, from Hollywood depictions in films like "The Godfather Part II" and "Scarface" to Cold War flash points such as the Bay of Pigs invasion and the missile crisis.
Previous presidents tried varying strategies.
Former President John F. Kennedy authorized the ill-fated Bay of Pigs operation.
Former President Barack Obama pursued rapprochement, shaking Raul Castro's hand at Nelson Mandela's funeral and reopening travel and diplomatic channels in 2015.
Obama signaled that exposure to American commerce and ideas would encourage gradual liberalization.
That thaw stalled, and Trump reversed many of Obama's policies during his first term.
Now, with Venezuela destabilized and Iran reeling, the administration believes the geopolitical landscape has shifted decisively.
Cuban officials have expressed willingness to engage in dialogue — but only "without pressure or preconditions."
Cuba, long a symbol of Cold War rivalry, has reemerged at the center of Washington's ambitions — and the Trump administration appears determined to write the final act.
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