The Cook Political Report (which is the best there is, but tends to run a little behind) lists 23 Democratic House seats as now likely or leaning Republican.
We will win all of those.
It also lists 47 seats now held by Democrats as tossup. I am working in about half of these districts, and I believe we will win virtually all of these seats.
That makes 70. Then, there are 46 Democratic seats listed as leaning or likely Democrat but not solidly so. That's where we need to concentrate our fire.
My organization, SuperPacUSA.com is targeting 24 seats from this list in television ad buys now going on the air set to run until Election Day. Each voter will see our ad about 7-10 times, so I think they will help us to win almost all of these races.
In some cases, we have one advertisement that attacks two or even three Democratic Congressmen who come from that area. (For example, three are in the Phoenix area alone.) Here's the list of districts in which we are fighting:
AZ Triple (ad running)
- AZ-8 Gabrielle Giffords, Democrat, v. Jess Kelly, Republican
- AZ-5 Harry Mitchell, Democrat, v. David Schweikert, Republican
- AZ-1 Ann Kirkpatrick, Democrat, v. Paul Gosar, Republican
New York Triple:
- NY-23 Bill Owens, Democrat, v. Matt Doheny, Republican
- NY-24 Mike Arcuri, Democrat, v. Richard Hanna, Republican
- NY-25 Dan Maffei, Democrat, v. Ann Marie Buerkle, Republican
- ME-2 Mike Michaud, Democrat, v. Jason Levesque, Republican
- ME-1 Chellie Pingree, Democrat, v. Dean Scontras, Republican
- IA-1 Bruce Braley, Democrat, v. Ben Lange, Republican
- IA-2 Dave Loebsack, Democrat, v. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, Republican
- MA-4 Barney Frank, Democrat, v. Sean Bielat, Republican
- MA-5 Nike Tsongas, Democrat, v. Jon Golnik, Republican
- MA-10 Bill Keating, Democrat, v. Jeff Perry, Republican
New Mexico Double:
- NM-1 Martin Heinrich, Democrat, v. Jon Barela, Republican
- NM-3 Ben Ray Lujan, Democrat, v. Tom Mullins, Republican
- NY-20 Scott Murphy, Democrat, v. Chris Gibson, Republican
- AZ-7 Raul Grijalva, Democrat, v. Ruth McClung, Republican
- ID-1 Walt Minnick, Democrat, v. Raul Labrador, Republican
- FL-2 Allen Boyd, Democrat, v. Steve Southerland, Republican
- MN-1 Tim Walz, Democrat, v. Randy Demmer, Republican
- MN-8 Jim Oberstar, Democrat, v. Chip Cravaack, Republican
- TN-4 Lincoln Davis, Democrat, v. Scott DesJarlais, Republican
- WI-8 Steven Kagen, Democrat, v. Reid Ribble, Republican
- WV-03 Nick Rahall, Democrat, v. Spike Maynard, Republican
to see the ad we are running in the districts with only one target. Notice how factually and impartially it tells you where the candidates stand.
It is not a negative ad in the conventional sense. It is a straightforward factual ad. If the Democratic Congressman were honest enough to own up to the votes he actually cast, he'd pay for half the ad.
And in the districts with multiple congressional targets, we have to get a bit more feisty but still we use a factual approach that I think will work very, very well.
© Dick Morris & Eileen McGann