Republican candidate Dino Rossi, who must win for the GOP to take the Senate, has moved up to a 1-point lead in the latest Rasmussen poll.
Underscoring this surge (he had been 3 behind) is a big Republican turnout in the early voting.
His campaign consultant, Pat Shortridge, reports that turnout in Democratic districts is way down. The heavily Democratic 7th Congressional District, for example, was 1.4 percent above the state average in 2004 but is now 3.3 percent below it.
Likewise, turnout in the Democratic 1st Congressional District was 4 points above the statewide average in 2004 but is now 2.7 points below the average.
On the other hand, he notes that Republican districts are turning out above the statewide average in the early voting. The 4th Congressional District, heavily Republican, was 3.8 percent below the statewide average in 2004 but is now 5 points head and the 5th Congressional District, also Republican, has gone from 2.5 points behind to 5 points ahead.
This would be the ninth seat the Republicans would gain.
We are already ahead in North Dakota, Indiana, Arkansas, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Illinois.
For the 10th, we have to look to West Virginia, California, Connecticut, or Delaware!
Stay tuned.
© Dick Morris & Eileen McGann