Seven months ago, the conventional wisdom was that, while the Republicans would score impressive gains in both houses of Congress in the elections of 2010, the Democrats would keep control.
Now, it is that the Republicans may, indeed, capture the House, but never the Senate. Presidential press secretary Robert Gibbs admitted that the loss of the House was a possibility.
The conventional wisdom is still wrong. The Republicans will take the Senate and the House.
Here's the Senate rundown.
The GOP has six retiring incumbents. Kentucky and Kansas are no problem. In Missouri, Republican Roy Blunt is ahead and, in Ohio, Republican Rob Portman is slightly ahead.
In New Hampshire, the Republicans have a fierce primary, but, trust us, if even Massachusetts went Republican, New Hampshire won't go Democrat. In Florida, Republican Rubio is in a tough race against turncoat former Republican Crist, but he will eventually pull through.
Easy Pickups: Delaware, Indiana, Arkansas, North Dakota. Republicans hold a commanding lead in the three open seats and a double-digit lead over Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas.
The Balance of Power States:
In Pennsylvania, Republican Pat Toomey is pulling ahead of Democrat Joe Sestak. Likely GOP pickup.
In Colorado, both parties have primaries but either Republican beats either Democrat. Another pickup.
In Nevada, despite a negative pounding, Sharron Angle is still ahead of Reid and Harry is decidedly under 50 percent of the vote in all polls. Probably Harry loses.
In Illinois, there's a close race between Republican Mark Kirk and Democrat Alexi Giannoulias. Could go either way.
In California, Carly Fiorina is only three points behind Barbara Boxer, who is under 50 percent and has been all year. Could go either way.
In Washington state, Republican Dino Rossi is tied with incumbent Patty Murray, who is under 50 percent. Could go either way.
In Wisconsin, Republican Ron Johnson, who is not well known, is very close to Russ Feingold in the polls. Russ is still ahead but Johnson has a very good shot.
So of the seven balance-of-power states, the Republicans have to pick up six to take the Senate. We probably will. In fact, the trend out there is so strong, the economy so bad, the Afghan war such bad news, the oil spill so awful, that we likely win all seven.
Want to help?
Carly Fiorina has enough money on her own. But Sharron Angle (Nevada), Mark Kirk (Illinois), Dino Rossi (Washington state), and Ron Johnson (Wisconsin) need help.
Of this list, two need funds immediately. Angle needs help to counter the ferocious Reid negative ads. Reid has put $1 million behind a dishonest negative ad that uses a highly edited tape of Angle saying she wants to "phase out Social Security and Medicare."
What Sharron really said was that she wanted to phase out the method of funding that permits Harry Reid and company to raid the fund to pay for their deficit. But, as Churchill said, a lie makes it halfway around the world before the truth gets its shoes on in the morning. Due to responses from previous mailings, the rebuttal now has $150,000 behind it, but we need more. Urgently.
Go here to donate to Sharron Angle
And . . . Dino Rossi in Washington State is facing Patty Murray in a unique primary on August 20. In Washington, all candidates run on the same ballot and the top Republican then faces the top Democrat in November.
If Rossi, who has a primary, can top Murray, who doesn't, he will show that he can win and will get huge national support. A little money now could put this race on ice.
Go here to donate to Dino Rossi
The Republican Party will win the Senate. We just need to all mobilize and send our checks where and when they will do the most good. Sign up to get our columns (for free) and get your friends to sign up and we'll call in the artillery barrages as we need them!
© Dick Morris & Eileen McGann